Oscars: 2004 Predictions
Here's the deal. I'm creating this list once, right now (1-18-05) and then I'm not gonna change it until the winners are announced. Let's see how accurate I am! (Probably not very!)
Best Picture:
01. Million Dollar Baby
02. Sideways
03. The Aviator
04. Finding Neverland
Best Director:
01. Martin Scorcese - The Aviator
02. Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
03. Alexander Payne - Sideways
Best Actor:
01. Jamie Foxx - Ray
02. Paul Giamatti - Sideways
03. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
04. Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
05. Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Best Actress:
01. Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby
02. Annette Bening - Being Julia
03. Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake
Best Original Screenplay:
01. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Best Adapted Screenplay:
01. Sideways
02. Million Dollar Baby
Best Animated Film:
01. The Incredibles
02. Shrek 2
In a sense, I'm hedging my bet that the Academy will do what it almost never does:
1. Give 'Best Picture' to a film that doesn't win a directing or writing award.
2. Give 'Best Actor' to a film that wins no other awards.
3. Give Charlie Kaufman a fucking award.
Not only that, I'm betting that the 'major 6' awards are split among 5 films - which the Academy never does, and is the opposite of what it did last year in giving everything to one film: ROTK.
I'm also betting that, for once, the Academy will prefer quality over quantity in the animated film department (Shrek 2 destroyed Incredibles at the box office, but Incredibles was a far better film).
Suicide, I tell ya! (The cool thing is that if I'm wrong, it's no big deal because my defeat was obvious. But if I'm right, I'm a genius!)
Just so I can't cheat and edit stuff on you (I can't edit posts after 30 mins), I'm predicting:
Million Dollar Baby for Best Picture, Martin Scorcese for Best Director, Jamie Foxx for Best Actor, Hilary Swank for Best Actress, Eternal Sunshine for Best Original Screenplay, Sideways for Best Adapted Screenplay, and The Incredibles for Best Animated Film.
Well, the Oscar nominations have been announced, and of course my predicted winners were all nominated. But I can't figure out how 'Before Sunset' is an adapted screenplay: that might give some challenge to Sideways and Million Dollar Baby, but I doubt it.
Alas, I'm beginning to feel that my original choices were as silly as I should've known all along. But we'll see.
I would assume it's adapted because it includes characters that were created for another film, and is indeed based upon the events that occured in that other film.
Yeah, I guess... kinda sorta. I can understand it, I just wasn't expecting it.
Shit. Sideways definitely isn't winning best adapted screenplay now. Oh well.
What makes you think that? I think it still has a good chance.
Because Paul Giamatti wasn't even nominated.
I actually think that Giamatti was the Sideways nomination who was on the most shaky ground. I don't think the slight against Giamatti is a predictor for the screenplay. Sideways is pretty much the best-reviewed film of 2004, a brilliant indie film that did very well at the box office, and that's the kind of film that usually wins screenplay awards.
Million Dollar Baby has a good chance, but I certainly wouldn't put Sideways out of the running yet.
Is it OK if I take this for that?
Of course.
Thanks!
Damn, I could've sworn I'd originally written Clint to win Best Director. That's what I've had in my head as my prediction for the past month! Stupid. Stupid. Stupid! What the hell is wrong with me?!
Well, for making these predictions before the nominees were announced, I think getting only one wrong ain't too shabby.
Damn, damn, damn, what was I thinking!
Lighten up. You're too young to expect perfection of yourself.
No, but I was so close! :-)