2008 Oscar Nomination Predictions (all categories, and last minute edits!)
PREDICTED NOMINATION TALLY
Into the Wild - 9
No Country for Old Men - 7*
Atonement - 6
Michael Clayton - 6
There Will Be Blood - 6
American Gangster - 5
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - 4
Juno - 3
Ratatouille - 3
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - 3
Transformers - 3
3:10 to Yuma - 2
The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford - 2
Charlie Wilson's War - 2
Grace is Gone - 2
Once - 2
La Vie En Rose - 2
Away from Her - 1
Beowulf - 1
The Bourne Ultimatum - 1*
Eastern Promises - 1
Enchanted - 1
Evan Almighty - 1
The Golden Age - 1
The Golden Compass - 1
Gone Baby Gone - 1
Hairspray - 1
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix - 1
I'm Not There - 1
Lust, Caution - 1
A Mighty Heart - 1
Norbit - 1
The Savages - 1
Zodiac - 1
*one higher if there are 5 nominees in sound effects editing
============
Best Picture
01. No Country for Old Men
02. Michael Clayton
03. Juno
04. There Will Be Blood
05. Into the Wild
alternates
06. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
07. Atonement
08. Sweeney Todd
longshot
3:10 to Yuma
This years race is kinda crazy. I cannot think of a single year in which neither of the Golden Globes' Best Pictures received Oscar nominations, but I think it could conceivably happen this year. Atonement reminds me of Cold Mountain back in 2003, it received an extraordinary amount of backlash because it came out so late after so much hype and "sure thing" talk. This sucks, however, because Atonement is much better than Cold Mountain, and is pretty undeserving of the cold shoulder (no pun intended, seriously). Sweeney Todd won at the Globes, but I don't think that means too much. Afterall, they passed on Fargo for Evita. Sweeney is more of a possibility than Evita was, but this year's race is very crowded, and Sweeney didn't have the box office to keep its momentum up. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly keeps getting nominated for major awards, and it seems like it could be the real spoiler here. Sometimes, passion and acclaim are enough to upset pedigree and big names, but that is always the outside bet. I expect than Schnabel will be appearing in the Director category, and I expect the film to get a Pan's Labyrinth-style set of nominations (ie, cinematography, maybe screenplay), but the top 5 is hard for foreign language films to penetrate. This decade has seen Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Letters from Iwo Jima have gotten Best Picture nominations, and Letters was American, so it only half-counts.
As for my predicted five, I feel like the top four are more and more comfy as the days go by, while the fifth slot is still bizarrely up for grabs. My logic in choosing Into the Wild is that it is really the only one of my five predicted nominees (as well as the runner-ups) that won't turn off some group of old people. Seriously. They aren't going to be voting for Sweeney Todd, believe me. Also, Sean Penn seems somewhat popular/respected in Hollywood, and Actor/Directors tend to receive attention when they make a decent movie. However, I'm not 100% sold that Diving Bell won't upset. There Will Be Blood and Juno have their obstacles (too grim/too cute), but probably have very loyal supporters that will clinch the nominations. Michael Clayton and No Country for Old Men are pretty much locked, and I expect them to be among the movies with the most overall nominations.
interesting notes
- If this line-up comes true, the "underdog" indie comedy Juno will lead the nominees' box office tally with $72 (as of 1/15). Next up would be No Country with $46, then Michael Clayton with $39, then Into the Wild with $17, and finally There Will Be Blood has taken in $4.5 in very limited release, and will probably end up out-grossing at least Into the Wild. All five films are still currently playing in theaters, so these numbers are subject to change.
- At MetaCritic.com (a website that averages reviews into a number score), my top eight have the following scores: No Country 91, Michael Clayton 82, Juno 81, There Will Be Blood 92, Into the Wild 73, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly 92, Atonement 85, and Sweeney Todd 83. According to the site, the five best reviewed new films of 2007, in ascending order, were Persepolis, No Country, There Will Be Blood, Diving Bell/Butterfly, and, finally, Ratatouille.
Best Director
01. The Coen Brothers - No Country for Old Men
02. Sean Penn - Into the Wild
03. P.T. Anderson - There Will Be Blood
04. Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
05. Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
alternates
06. Joe Wright - Atonement
07. David Fincher - Zodiac
08. Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
longshot
David Cronenberg - Eastern Promises
I just don't think the Academy likes Tim Burton very much, I'm going to be honest. Every time he makes a serious movie, everybody gets pumped for his overdue Oscar nomination, but I am convinced that this is terribly unlikely to happen for him any time soon. David Fincher should really fall into this category, neither he nor Burton have seen much Academy love, but I feel like Zodiac is a more likely movie to fly in under the radar than Sweeney. Besides, it has been given new life with the year end best-ofs, and Fincher could just zip past all the directors splitting the prestige votes. This, however, remains unlikely.
Joe Wright is a boy wonder, and I feel like people have less of a problem with him than the film. So, I could very much see him and Tony Gilroy neck and neck for that last spot. However, Michael Clayton is such a sure thing that I can't help but feel that it'll carry Gilroy to a nomination. Schnabel is well respected, and made an acclaimed foreign arthouse film. Usually this is the category they stick guys like him. Plus he even got a DGA nomination along with his Golden Globe win, proving his own award strength. The top three are pretty much guarantees. They've probably wanted to award P.T. Anderson for a while (they liked Boogie Nights quite a bit; he got a screenwriting nom for that one), and this is the perfect film to do that with. They love Sean Penn, and he directed a movie. Voila. Ultimately, however, the Coen Brothers have this thing so locked up it's not even funny.
LAST MINUTE PREDICTION CHANGE!
Alright, I can't let Tony Gilroy stand. Nothing personal to him, but this just doesn't sit right. I think a wildcard director will be yanking just enough votes to land that slot, and my gut tells me this is what we're gonna hear:
01. The Coen Brothers - No Country for Old Men
02. Sean Penn - Into the Wild
03. P.T. Anderson - There Will Be Blood
04. Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
05. David Fincher - Zodiac
Best Actor
01. Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
02. George Clooney - Michael Clayton
03. Viggo Mortenson - Eastern Promises
04. Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild
05. Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
alternates
06. Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl
07. James McAvoy - Atonement
08. Denzel Washington - American Gangster
longshot
Frank Langella - Starting Out in the Evening
This is another tight race, but it really seems to have narrowed down to six men fighting for five slots. McAvoy's film may end up sweeping him up if the Academy really embraces it, but his performance is somewhat understated, which does not bode well. Denzel is only on this list because he's Denzel; some serious vote-splitting would need to occur to get him in there. That leaves a three man fight for the 4th and 5th slots. Gosling is already a well loved performer at his young age, and he's managed to remain with the pack this entire season (nabbing a Broadcast Film Critics nom, a Golden Globe nom, and a Screen Actors Guild nom), so leaving him out leaves a bad feeling in my stomach. However, I'm betting that Johnny Depp will squeak by Gosling on his name and role alone, while Hirsch seems somewhat safer, with a more widely contending film.
The rest of the nominations are not quite as contested. Viggo went from dark horse to somewhat comfortably in the middle of the pack, and I expect that he'll show up. As far as the top two, Day-Lewis and Clooney are as locked as locked can be.
LAST MINUTE PREDICTION CHANGE!
I am going for a no guts/no glory prediction here, and predicting that Denzel Washington will upset Johnny Depp to enter the top five. You ask why? Because I was thinking about how this category is just terribly weak when you get down to spot 5, and then I realized that the Academy was much more likely to throw Denzel a bone than Johnny. Besides, I think American Gangster was probably received more warmly than Sweeney Todd in many Hollywood circles.
So, my final prediction is:
01. Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
02. George Clooney - Michael Clayton
03. Viggo Mortenson - Eastern Promises
04. Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild
05. Denzel Washington - American Gangster
Best Actress
01. Julie Christie - Away from Her
02. Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
03. Ellen Page - Juno
04. Angelina Jolie - A Might Heart
05. Keira Knightly - Atonement
alternates
06. Laura Linney - The Savages
07. Cate Blanchett - The Golden Age
08. Amy Adams - Enchanted
longshot
Jodie Foster - The Brave One
The top races this year are more exciting than they have been in a while, and there are at least seven performances still fighting a hard battle for the five slots. Amy Adams was so beloved in Enchantment that people began to think she could upset in such a crazy year, but it seems less and less likely. Besides, the Academy rarely endorses such cartoony (obviously purposeful, but still...) performances without a lot more hoopla. Cate Blanchett may very well be nominated for being named Cate Blanchett this year, afterall she has not missed a single major nomination. But everybody hated the movie, and she's a lock in Supporting. So, I think it really comes down to two actresses that the Academy has proven their love for, even though the performances haven't been given as much love as the other possible nominees. Laura Linney has gotten critical praise for The Savages, but her costar Philip Seymour Hoffman seemed to get more awards attention. However, the performance may have been strong enough to stick in voters' minds. Keira Knightly is in a Best Picture contender, and looks iconic in nearly every frame. The performance is, however, more subtle than one would expect, and some voters may find themselves underwhelmed. In the end, I trust Atonement's own heft to push Knightly ahead of Blanchett and Linney.
The other four are actually all pretty much locked up, unless the academy bizarrely decides to ignore Jolie. But that remains an extremely outside possibility.
Best Supporting Actor
01. Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
02. Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
03. Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
04. Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
05. Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
alternates
06. Tommy Lee Jones - No Country for Old Men
07. John Travolta - Hairspray
08. Max Von Syndow - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
longshot
Steve Zahn - Rescue Dawn/Russel Crowe - American Gangster
This is the most locked-up of the categories, with the only contention for the sixth slot coming from Tommy Lee Jones steady work in No Country. Von Syndow has a small role in a well-loved film, but he has yet to be mentioned by any awards group. In fact, only the top seven have been mentioned by any major groups. Travolta got a Golden Globe nomination, but they love certain stars no matter what, and his accent alone should prevent this from happening at the Oscars. So Jones is battling Affleck's critically acclaimed lead performance, and recently Oscared Hoffman's scene-stealing in an otherwise dissapointing film. Affleck seems like a safe bet, and Hoffman's role is the only comedic one among the potential nominees, so that gives them the edge, but Jones's name would not surprise me at all among the nominees. In fact, I'm beginning to wish I had predicted him.
The top three all have strong films as well as good reviews, so they are pretty much locked. Hal Holbrook's role is brief, but people have been talking it up consistently, and he gives a sincerely emotional performance that wraps the film up in some ways. Tom Wilkinson's exclusion at this point would be bizarre. If George and Tilda are in, so's Tom. That leads us to the probable winner of the category: Javier Bardem. This is probably the single most secure nomination of the night. If they cancelled the show tonight, they would directly apologize to Bardem for taking his Oscar.
Best Supporting Actress
01. Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
02. Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
03. Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
04. Catherine Keener - Into the Wild
05. Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
alternates
06. Ruby Dee - American Gangster
07. Jennifer Garner - Juno
08. Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
longshot
Leslie Mann - Knocked Up
This is probably the least solidified acting category this year. Once again, the top three are locked, but past that, this category may be ripe for upset. That said, I'm picking probably the safest nominees. Why? Because when all else fails, the Academy is boring. Vanessa Redgrave, Jennifer Garner, and Ruby Dee have all gotten one major nomination apiece, and are in films contending in other categories. Unfortunately for these ladies, my five predicted nominees all have larger roles or more popular films to back them up. In fact, Vanessa Redgrave and Ruby Dee have really miniscule roles. Of course, both of them nail their crucial scenes, but they would literally only be getting nominated for that scene and their names. Jennifer Garner was quite good in Juno, but the role doesn't really provide a lot of Oscary moments. The general Juno love would have to be stronger than I'm predicting in order to pull her in. In addition to these three women duking it out, there are still a few other performances that could conceivably sneak in and/or split votes (ie Kelly MacDonald in No Country for Old Men, Julia Roberts in Charlie Wilson's War, and Jennifer Jason Leigh in Margot at the Wedding). So, that said, I feel surprisingly confident in my choices. The only possible weak spot is young Saoirse Ronan, but she seems to be emerging from the Atonement backlash unscathed, and her performance is really quite good. I expect that she and Catherine Keener will both make it on two principles I have learned about the academy: they like Catherine Keener and they like precocious little girls.
Let me say this about my #3: Tilda Swinton is awesome. I have yet to see Michael Clayton, but I am quite sure she is wonderful in it. The three leads of the film are all pretty much locked in together. I imagine any voter voting for Tom and George is also writing Tilda's name down. Amy Ryan came out of nowhere to win almost every single critics award invented. In fact, I'm quite sure they invented some awards just for her. Ever since they announced their winners, I've been searching for the Film Society of Amy Ryan's High School Teachers' nominees from years past, but to no avail. And, finally, Cate Blanchett is Cate Blanchett, as always. She's very, very good in a showy, buzzy role, and she has the award power of 80's era Streep. It helps that I'm sure voters just instinctively write her name down once they get a ballot. This becomes confusing in categories like cinematography and sound editing, but no voting system is perfect.
AGING AWARDS GEEK MOMENT: Does anyone remember when the #1 complaints about the Academy were that they never nominated Cate Blanchett and hated violent or stylized auteur movies? Ha ha ha. The good old days...
Best Original Screenplay
01. Juno
02. Michael Clayton
03. The Savages
04. Ratatouille
05. Knocked Up
alternates
06. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
07. Lars and the Real Girl
08. American Gangster
longshot(s)
4 Months 3 Weeks And 2 Days / Once
Logic says that the 5th slot will probably go to Lars and the Real Girl, and that if the academy is going to embrace Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, it will be with either this, or a Director nomination, but I just don't see room for two movies as unabashedly cutesy as Juno and Lars and the Real Girl, and Lumet wasn't the only director returning to form this year. With little passionate love, American Gangster is not really a contender at this point, but sometimes there is a bizarre prestige inclusion at the expense of smaller films, and the rest of the contenders are pretty comedy heavy. This all said, I hope/think that we'll end up hearing Judd Apatow's first Oscar nomination when these are announced. The WGA has proven that they love Apatow more than the Academy (having nom'ed both Knocked Up and The 40 Year Old Virgin, which Oscar passed on), but maybe Knocked Up's huge word-of-mouth success and the WGA nom (maybe people will vote for their nominees out of solidarity) will be enough to get it in there.
My top four all seem pretty snug. Oscar loves family dysfunction tragi-comedies, so expect The Savages to show, and despite missing a WGA nom, Ratatouille was too widely loved to miss out here. Besides, Pixar has an exceptional history in this category. Juno and Michael Clayton are locked in, with their screenplays singled out as their primary strengths. Juno will probably get this in the end. This category has historically been the "we don't have the balls to give you best picture, but here's something" category, and I can't see Juno really losing here.
LAST MINUTE PREDICTION CHANGE!
The more and more I look at Knocked Up, the less and less I believe it'll get the Academy stamp of approval. I think some writers probably are somewhat bothered by the Apatow Comedy Machine, and the script is probably 3/4s improvised, which may rub some the wrong way. None of this hurt Borat in the adapted category last year, but that category seems to welcome an annual edgy nominee, while Original Screenplay can be a tempestuous, angry mistress.
I regret not even including Once on my alternates list in my original predictions. With so many "small" or quirky films scrambling for the fifth slot, I have the notion that Once could inspire enough passion to steal the 5th spot out from under the big guys.
This all said, I fearlessly predict that the final breakdown will be as such:
01. Juno
02. Michael Clayton
03. The Savages
04. Ratatouille
05. Once
06. Lars and the Real Girl
07. American Gangster
08. Knocked Up
Best Adapted Screenplay
01. No Country for Old Men
02. There Will Be Blood
03. Atonement
04. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
05. Charlie Wilson's War
alternates
06. Into the Wild
07. Zodiac
08. The Kite Runner
longshot
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Basically, either Into the Wild will push it's way into the category (making all five nominees somewhat tragic or grim dramas) or Aaron Sorkin will get in for his mildly-recieved political satire. Based on his longstanding reputation as a drug us- er, I mean writers' writer, I tenatively expect Sorkin to take this. It seems like Zodiac and the Kite Runner are pretty much also-rans, but I get the feeling there could very easily be an upset here.
The top three are pretty much sure things. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly may get a little grief for not being in English, but I think it's chances are still far stronger than any film under it. The rest of the three are such strong locks that any of these three being snubbed would be considered a HUGE upset. Of course, people may be more dismissive of Atonement than I'm predicting, so we could see that snub.
AWARDS GEEK MOMENT: Jesus, this category is BORING this year. Usually we can rely on one really cooky nominee in this one, but this year is by the books (no pun intended).
Best Animated Film
01. Ratatouille
02. Beowulf
03. Bee Movie
alternates
04. Persepolis
05. The Simpson's Movie
longshot
Aqua Teen Hunger Force Colon Film for Theaters
What you can learn about me through my predicted three for this category: I have a severe distrust for the Academy's taste in animated films. I'm almost certain Persepolis will get snubbed. If I'm jinxing my own predictions, it'll get nominated, so it's win/win.
Best Cinematography
01. The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
02. No Country for Old Men
03. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
04. There Will Be Blood
05. Into the Wild
alternates
06. Atonement
07. American Gangster
08. Sweeney Todd
longshot
In the Valley of Elah
I don't know why exactly I think that Into the Wild will usurp Atonement for the fifth slot here, but it just seems right. Atonement is gorgeous, but it may suffer from enough backlash to make way for the nature landscapes of Into the Wild. After all, Oscar loves vistas and such.
This category also usually goes for very noticeable / flashy work, and that seems to secure my top four. I'm just being cocky by putting Jesse James at #1. It'll probably be nominated, but it's definitely not as secure as that implies. If my #s 1 & 2 and In the Valley Elah got nominated, we'd be hearing Roger Deakin's name three times. Maybe he'll FINALLY win.
Best Art Direction
01. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
02. Atonement
03. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
04. There Will Be Blood
05. American Gangster
alternates
06. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
07. Zodiac
08. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
longshot
Persepolis
This year's visual tech categories are a little fuzzy for me. There are some very flashy films, but the year's big movies are kinda classic or muted. So I'm trying to minimize the bombast in my predictions. That all said, Harry Potter seems to be a steady roll in this category. The series has matured pretty well, and Order of the Phoenix had some neat set pieces and Umbridge was pretty much perfectly designed. On the other hand, the techs can be fickle about these things, so it's not a total lock.
The only films that come close to being sure things are Sweeney and Atonement. The Academy favors Burton movies here more than anywhere else, and Sweeney probably can't miss. Atonement is the sole pretty prestige film that isn't all bleak and sweaty, plus the beach scene is one of the better things voters will see all year. Below Poetter, There Will Be Blood is probably a safe bet what with the general love for the film and the period setting being a mighty powerful force.
The fifth slot is going to my pet dark horse, American Gangster, because when you get right down to it, the visual scope of the film is actually quite a bit wider than almost anything else in contention. Even if I'm overestimating AG in some ways, I bet this is actually a somewhat secure nom. My other favorite spoiler, Diving Bell et Butterfly, makes me paranoid in every category, but I ain't gonna pick it this time. If things get ultra boring, I could see a lineup of Sweeney, American Gangster, Potter, Pirates, and The Golden Age, making the category 3/4s full of sequels to films with nominations in this category, and then Burton's oft-nominated designer & AG rounding it off. Maybe they'll surprise everyone and throw Juno a token contemporary slot.
Best Costume Design
01. Atonement
02. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
03. 3:10 to Yuma
04. The Golden Age
05. American Gangster
alternates
06. Hairspray
07. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
08. Assasination of Jesse James
longshot
Juno
This category is somewhat harder than I thought it would be. I'm comfy with Sweeney and Atonement, either one being snubbed would be pretty surprising. It's everything else that has me troubled.
I could see American Gangster and 3:10 to Yuma sneaking into a lot of categories with the anti-frilly dress votes, and I'm betting that will happen here with both of 'em. The cowboy thing is kind of distinct, and I just have this feeling that we'll be seeing this movie in the techs. Last year, the nominees were four really extravagent/over-the-top productions, and then The Queen, which was more about period authenticity and the film's general voter pull. Hence, AG & Yuma beating out the loud and sparkly Hairspray. I kinda feel weird predicting Hairspray for anything actually. I just can't see it doing much other than Song, but maybe I'm wrong.
Best Film Editing
01. No Country for Old Men
02. Bourne Ultimatum
03. Michael Clayton
04. Into the Wild
05. Diving Bell and the Butterfly
alternates
06. There Will Be Blood
07. American Gangster
08. Atonement
longshot
I'm Not There
This category is always unexplainably exciting to me. This might make me less of a person. Basically, I am predicting these five on a whim, and the exclusion of Atonement isn't particularly intentional. I just think that the more masculine and traditional frontrunners will probably place in a lot of the tech categories this year. I feel like No Country will be setting the mood for a lot of the minor categories this year. All male oriented and violent and thoughtful and such. With this in mind, I think Bourne's safe, and Greengrass (the director, not editor) projects are gonna end up being an occasional presence in tech categories from here on out.
The fifth slot is something of a crapshoot, but I'm really betting for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly to show up anywhere it can, gaining a nice tally with no BP nom. Or perhaps these instincts just prove that it will upset and boot Juno or something from the big race. Sigh.
In the end, the Coens are the kings of this one this year. I'm probably stupid for leaving There Will Be Blood off of here, but American Gangster seems like the type of film to pick up random tech nominations with few majors (besides my risky, dangerous, all new, all exciting last minute prediction in Best Actor...go Denzel for the upset!), and I may be vastly overestimating Michael Clayton's final tally, but I feel like it'll be a somewhat steadier contender than TWBB in these categories.
Best Original Score
01. Atonement
02. Ratatouille
03. 3:10 to Yuma
04. Grace is Gone
05. Lust, Caution
alternates
06. Eastern Promises
07. The Kite Runner
08. Michael Clayton
longshot
I am Legend
This category very often puzzles me. I'm not sure how exactly the worth of a score is judged, but there seems to be a system for scoring based on how much the person writing the score is John Williams. If not, it's a crapshoot. Scores that are instantly iconic are often here, but sometimes generic and uninspired choices edge out perceived locks. That said, Clint Eastwood did the Grace is Gone score, so it'll be nominated. I should really put it at #1.
Overall, I expect that the nominees will come from these 8 films or maybe another frontrunner with a high nomination tally. Except There Will Be Blood because it was stupidly deemed ineligible. The Academy is notoriously spotty with the rule enforcement in this category, and it usually ends up with something awesome being disqualified. Remember this.
Best Original Song
01. Into the Wild - "Guaranteed"
02. Hairspray - "Come So Far (Got So Far to Go)"
03. Enchanted - "That's How You Know"
04. Once - "Falling Slowly"
05. Grace is Gone - "Grace is Gone"
alternates
06. Enchanted - "Happy Work Song"
07. American Gangster - "Do You Feel Me?"
08. Once - "If You Want Me"
longshot
Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story - "Walk Hard"
All I am really going to say is that if Once walks away from this category empty-handed, I'm gonna be pissed. Especially if it gets snubbed for Eddie Veder singing some boring tunes. Sigh. Oh, by the way, Clint Eastwood wrote "Grace is Gone", that's why I'm predicting it. I know nothing else. It could be Eastwood's sonically captured flatulence accompanied by harpsichord for all I know. It would still get nominated, I'm sure.
I could see a rap song sneaking in here, so that bodes well for American Gangster, and they sometimes like the chuckles in this category, so that helps Enchanted and the semi-longshot Walk Hard. Afterall, this category was the home of the sole Oscar nomination for South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut. Of course, you know that some random song in Spanish will be here. Perhaps from Love in the Time of Cholera. Or maybe from an Asian film. Who knows, really?
Best Foreign Film
I am not going to bother with this category, because I only have 9 films to choose from, and the voters for this are batshit insane.
Best Sound Mixing
01. No Country for Old Men
02. Transformers
03. Into the Wild
04. American Gangster
05. 300
alternatives
06. Spider-Man
07. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
08. Beowulf
longshot
Hairspray
I'm not sure any possible combination of five films would surprise me in this category. I feel like Transformers and No Country are likely, but they're not untouchable, and this category can involve some technical knowledge to predict accurately. I possess no knowledge that I know of, other than my general understanding of mixing various elements of the soundtrack of a movie. This category is silly.
Best Sound Effects Editing
01. Transformers
02. 300
03. American Gangster
alternatives
(category could be either 3 or 5 nominees)
04. No Country for Old Men
05. The Bourne Ultimatum
06. Beowulf
07. Ratatouille
longshot
30 Days of Night
I have no idea, but this category can be either 3 or 5 nominees large, and usually resembles best sound mixing's nominees. I'm just gonna go ahead and go crazy with the American Gangster predictions, even though I'm kinda lukewarm on the movie itself.
Best Make-Up
01. La Vie En Rose
02. Norbit
03. Sweeney Todd
alternates
04. 300
05. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
This category is awesome because it offers me my only chance to throw Norbit a bone.
Best Visual Effects
01. Transformers
02. Evan Almighty
03. The Golden Compass
alternates
04. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
05. 300
06. I Am Legend
Academy members will some day have to explain to their children why both Norbit and Evan Almighty got nominations, and Persepolis was shut out.
