Which two 2004 Best Picture nominees will be forgotten in 20 years? (see comments)
Last year I put up a poll about which 2003 Oscar nominees would be forgotten in 20 years, using the example of the 1983 Oscars. You can click the "Inspired by" link to read that explanation.
I was going to do the same thing with the 1984 Oscars, but looking at the nominees, I'm guessing it wasn't a particularly strong year for the Academy. The winner Amadeus is still seen often today, but the other four (The Killing Fields, A Passage to India, Places in the Heart, A Soldier's Story) are definitely not. In fact, I haven't even heard of the last two on that list, and I think I've only heard of the first because it was on my Academy Awards Trivia Game and the second because David Lean directed it.
So yeah. If we are operating under the assumption that only two of the five films will be forgotten by the year 2024 (which doesn't seem to hold very well for 1984), which two will it be?
I voted for Finding Neverland and Ray and was pleasntly surprised to see that was the so far consensus choice. It seems to me that biopics often don't fare well over the years, and biopics of artists especially. In music, Gary Busey got an actor nod in the late seventies for The Buddy Holly Story, and I don't hear What's Love Got to Do With It talked about a whole lot, and that was only ten years or so ago. Finding Neverland, which admitedly I haven't seen, just seems so earnest that I can't imagine it enduring. For anyone else who voted, what was your reasoning?
Johnny Waco
That's what I voted for at first too, but actually now that The Aviator lost Best Picture and Scorsese lost Best Director, I think The Aviator might be more likely to be forgotten (I was predicting that the movie would win both of those awards). The Aviator is of course also a biopic of an artist, or at least an artist / businessman. I think in 20 years it will just be seen as a weaker entry from Scorsese that pales in comparison to his classics, not really a significant film of any sort. I'm not sure whether Ray or Finding Neverland would leave my vote though... maybe this year will only produce two movies that really last.