Which two 2003 Best Picture nominees will be forgotten in 20 years? (see comments)
I checked out the Best Picture nominees for 20 years ago, of films made in 1983. Here we have Terms of Endearment, The Right Stuff, The Big Chill, Tender Mercies, and The Dresser.
The Right Stuff is often considered a classic and is widely seen. Terms of Endearment and The Big Chill are perhaps less so, but they're still pretty well-known today. Tender Mercies is close to being forgotten, and in fact, if not for Robert Duvall and his Best Actor Oscar, it probably would be all but forgotten today. The Dresser is hardly known at all.
Hell, if you just go back five years, you'll see that Shakespeare in Love, Life Is Beautiful, and Saving Private Ryan are established contemporary classics, while Elizabeth and The Thin Red Line are losing the battle of obscurity.
So, if the films for 2003 follow the same trend, which two of the five nominees will be all but forgotten in 2023?
I must highly disagree with one of your examples AJ. I think that The Thin Red Line is nowhere near being forgotten. Most people who know film know the movie, and Terrance Malick is considered to be a master. The Thin Red Line is nowhere near forgotten, and while it is not known by the mainstream, many films aren't.
I think that 1997 is a better example with Good Will Hunting and As Good As it Gets...in 20 years, nobody will remember these.
My comment wasn't a knock against the film or anything; in fact, I haven't seen it, so I can't judge its quality. Unfortunately, when you're talking about popularity, you have to primarily include the mainstream. If there is a group of film-lovers who adore "The Thin Red Line", then I would say that even "The Dresser" probably has its little cult. In any case, "Thin Red Line" is certainly much less well-known than the other three.
On the other hand, I would actually disagree with you on 1997. Of course "As Good As It Gets" will be forgotten, but I have a feeling that "Good Will Hunting" will be remembered for a while. I actually think that, though this will take longer, no one will be watching "Titanic" in about 50 years. The effects will seem primitive then, and everyone will have realized how cheesy it is. Kinda like the "Around the World in 80 Days" of 1997, another box-office smash hit epic film that no one watches today.
I understand that it wasn't a knock against the film, and I see what you're saying about Good Will Hunting.
What I meant about The Thin Red Line is that I think in the future, it will be considered a classic. I think that it hasn't so much been forgotten now, as it hasn't really gained its audience yet. I think that in 20 years, it will be more well known than it is now. I think difficult films outlast fluff, and The Thin Red Line will ultimately outlast many films that are more famous now.
That said, I voted Mystic River and Seabiscuit. I just feel that eventually, Mystic River will only be remembered for the performances. That's not a knock on the film, I just think that films that are very solid are very rarely remembered. Usually, showy or groundbreaking films are remembered.
Of course, Master and Commander falls into the solid category. But I liked M&C more, so, Mystic gets my vote.
Seabiscuit is mediocre at best.
This is a very good idea for a poll. There are those Oscar winners which are unheard of today. I voted for Mystic River and Seabiscuit. I really enjoyed Mystic River and so do many people who have seen it, but I'm just afraid that it's not going to hold up over the years.
With the exception of The Right Stuff, Tender Mericies is a better movie than the other nominess from that year. The Dresser was the type of movie Oscar often nominates but is soon forgotten. It is a pretty good movie though.
My guess on ths year will be Seabiscuit and Master and Commander but I have not seen Master so I will hold judgement till I see them