Oscar Predictions - 2005
Submitted by AJDaGreat on Sun, 03/05/2006 - 03:55
Tags:
- Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain
- Best Director: Ang Lee
- Best Lead Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman (Though I'd probably prefer Straithairn for this year, Hoffman really deserves an Oscar.)
- Best Supporting Actor: Paul Giamatti (Tough to predict. I could actually see anyone but Hurt winning this one. Paul's biggest competition is George, of course.)
- Best Lead Actress: Reese Witherspoon (Sorry, Felicity, I don't think it's gonna happen.)
- Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz (Though Michelle definitely deserves this, and if she snags it, I'll be kicking myself for predicting Rachel.)
- Best Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain
- Best Original Screenplay: Crash
- Best Animated Film: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
- Best Art Direction: Memoirs of a Geisha
- Best Cinematography: Brokeback Mountain (If Batman Begins snags this one, I will laugh sooo hard...)
- Best Costumes: Memoirs of a Geisha
- Best Documentary Feature: March of the Penguins
- Best Editing: Crash
- Best Foreign Film: Tsotsi
- Best Makeup: Chronicles of Narnia
- Best Score: Memoirs of a Geisha (Although every year I think the Academy is going to give the award to John Williams again, and every year he loses. This year he was nominated twice, and although the buzz is all around Geisha, he could probably split votes and cause Brokeback to take it.)
- Best Song: In the Deep
- Best Sound: Walk the Line (Tough to predict. King Kong could snag this one just as easily.)
- Best Sound Editing: King Kong
- Best Visual Effects: King Kong
- I hate the shorts...
- Best Documentary Short: God Sleeps in Rwanda
- Best Animated Short: 9
- Best Live Action Short: Ausreisser (The Runaway)
Cloned From:
I was stupid and accidentally posted these predictions over my 2004 list originally. Here were the comments on the 2004 list that were made before I corrected the mistake.
lbangs wrote:
Aw, I love reading these lists...
One of the trickiest part of guessing the Oscars is deciding at what moment the ballots were cast. Every year, some person or film gets some major momentum heading into the homestretch, but it is too late. The train's done left the station.
I think that is why I lean toward Paradise Now for best foreign picture; I didn't hear nearly so much about the negative campaign until after the fact, but then, I don't live in Hollywood.
I could very likely be wrong about Hoffman (everybody seems to think I am), but I wonder if the "late mo" theory applies to Giamatti. It was hardly his most demanding role, Hollywood wants to award George, and he did some terrific campaigning and even tossed the "I injured myself for the role" hat into the ring. Still, you could very well be correct...
We may disagree on Best Score, but I think you understand my reasoning perfectly. Besides, which score do you still remember?
Tons of fun, I tell ya!
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
And 1922 wrote:
Definitely an interesting pick for Best Foreign Language Film. On a German site, they were absolutely sure about Tsotsi winning this. I still think Palestine will get it.
Maybe it's you who brings bad luck to John Williams by predicting him... I laugh loud when Williams loses tonight. :D
Oh, and I'll show you all for Best Editing. The Constant Gardener is going to bag this, and not Crash!!!
And why are we all so sure about Brokeback Mountain winning Best Picture? Last year, most of us also saw The Aviator winning before it actually lost. Maybe it's gonna be Crash. Then I know at least someone here who won't be very happy...
Oh, that has happened so many times to me...
Reply to lbangs:
I could definitely see Paradise Now stealing it. I just think that the whole controversial Palestine/terrorist thing might put off plenty of voters even before the negative campaign. I also got the sense that more people are predicting Tsotsi - but of course, that doesn't mean they're right.
It would be tough for me to remember Geisha's score since I didn't see the movie. But yeah, Brokeback Mountain's score was definitely memorable, an accomplishment I don't think many scores can claim. I'll probably end up kicking myself when Brokeback gets it. Still, I'll stick with Williams.
I noticed you posted over last year's predictions and just assumed you had some reason I couldn't quite fathom for doing it!
You could very well be right about the negative feelings toward Paradise Now. I will not be too surprised if either film wins.
The some sentiment goes for the score category. An awful lot of predictors are leaning toward Geisha, so I have to think they know something I don't. This may be an area where actually seeing the films hurts predicting, as I am partially influenced by finding Williams' score for the film thoroughly bland and unmemorable.
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
I noticed you posted over last year's predictions and just assumed you had some reason I couldn't quite fathom for doing it!
Occam's Razor. I'm just dumb.
By the way, did you know there is an Adam Again song by the title Occam's Razor? It is on Homeboys...
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
Ah, if only that album were available on Amazon marketplace like Dig and Perfecta. Alas, all we see is the Dig/Homeboys value pak that lacks "No Regrets."
Yeah, and you have to get a version with No Regrets on it.
That value pak is odd; it simply shaves off the last song of each album, not quite as big of a deal in the case of Dig, but fatal with Homeboys...
The Razor song is a little unique in that Gene wrote the music, but Terry Scott Taylor from the band(s) Daniel Amos/da/Swirling Eddies/Lost Dogs wrote the words. Gene was eventually drafted into those later two incarnations...
It is a great song, if only to hear Gene wail, "Don't you cry, sweet baby / Everybody's gotta die," and, "It's gonna hurt bad for a while."
Somebody here once asked how Gene's vocals are not simply copies of Michael Stipe's vocals. The answer? Gene, despite his nasal qualities, could, and often did, sing soul.
The strangest, sweetest aching soul, but soul all the same...
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
Reply to 1922:
See my comments above regarding Tsotsi and Williams.
We are so sure because Brokeback is going to win Best Picture. Sure, listen to Roger Ebert's propaganda if you wish, but I don't think Crash stands much of a chance. Yeah, I predicted The Aviator last year, but it was based on a feeling that Scorsese was due and the general rule that the film with the most nominations wins Best Picture. As Ebert said, though, the Academy votes with their brains on the tech awards and their hearts on the big awards. This year, Brokeback (1) has the most nominations, (2) is probably the most heart-rending movie, (3) has a director who, while he may not be "due" to the same extent that Scorsese is, is at least more "due" than James Haggis, and (4) IMHO, genuinely is the best picture. I'm afraid you're better off rooting for Crash to win Best Editing. :-)
Well, putting up my predictions this late just allows me faster turnaround time, so I can put my foot in my mouth with greater efficiency. :-)
Kudos to the Academy, though, for actually surprising me, even if Brokeback was the better film.
Oh, and I obviously meant Paul Haggis in the above post.
Poor John Williams...
The very few I'll predict differently from you are:
Best Foreign Film: Paradise Now
Best Score: Brokeback Mountain
Best Song: Travelin' Thru
Best Animated Short: The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello
Best Live Action Short: The Last Farm
Stupid shorts. I'm basing my predictions almost entirely on what others are predicting. I feel like 9 is the most-predicted, then Moon and the Son, and then Morello. But damned if it isn't close, and I wouldn't really be surprised if any of them won.
I wouldn't count on The Last Farm though. I get the sense it's between Six-Shooter and Runaway.
Well, at least the night wasn't as predictable as last year's. But, what the hell. Now I hate Crash even more. Even Jack Nicholson was like, "Crash? Huh? Are you serious?"
Sorry, Jim :-)
Luke, I can't find where you've posted your review of Crash. Is it somewhere outside Listology?
Weird, you're right; it has disappeared! Let me give it a new review, from memory:
Crash (2004, Paul Haggis) Crash has some well-written scenes, interesting characters, and worthy subject matter. But like Million Dollar Baby, it is also constructed entirely of cut-and-paste uber-dramatic scenarios.
Haggis sells Crash as an Important Film because it tackles subjects infrequently tackled by timid Hollywood, and therefore "must be" insightful and honest. It is only these on occasion.
Crash contends that none of us are all evil or all good - a worthy point to make when most movie characters are still irredeemably bad or saintly good - but makes this point by having almost every character be the Most Evil of Their Life and the Most Good of Their Life in a tiny timespan. Not only is it not insightful that we all have good and bad moments, but it is dishonest to say that we flip between the two without cause or intention.
I'll note that I dsagree with many of Sicinski's complaints. For example, Sicinski argues that Crash is ridiculously contrived and coincidental; I don't think it's so unbelievable (except for what I said before). Also, he seems to argue that Crash presents racism as a personal decision arising from a tabula rasa rather than growing from inequalities in our social structure. But one scene comes to mind. Dillon's character's father was forced to replace his best employees with incompetant minority workers due to equal opportunity laws of some kind, his business crashed, he lost hope and joy and then health, so now Dillon's character hates minorities (that's from memory; correct me if I'm off). Sounds to me like a perfect example of racism as the product of structural inequalities.
At this point you might be wondering if I really disliked it. Really, my biggest issue was Crash was the moment-to-moment irritation I felt at having seen every shot and heard every line before, at exactly the same rhythm, which I haven't spent much time explaining.
I do like many of the complex issues that Crash examines, not just of racism but of honor, relational roles, corruption, circumstance, and more. But I think Haggis examines these issues in a cliched, slightly dishonest way. And I am a little (only a little) disappointed that he skirted more important issues. Okay, everyone's probably a little racist - now, what do we do about it?
I do not think Crash is a terrible movie, just a failed one. If Haggis stops writing to win Oscars, he may just blow me away yet. He certainly has the talent.
Thank you for the review.
I agree Sicinski's observation that Crash is "ridiculously contrived and coincidental", but for different reasons. Because it's a Buddhist fantasy. It's a fable.
Dillon's father wasn't forced into hiring minorities. He chose to hire minorities and pay them an equal wage "when no one else was doing that", but he was forced out of business by affirmative action, when the city gave preference to a minority owned competitor.
Racism isn't caused by "structural inequalities." It's caused by human nature.
I think the movie does show what to do about it, as it shows people changing their attitudes and learning.
I think folks flip between good and evil all day "without cause or intention."
That's okay, I can afford to be magnanimous now. :-)
(we'll see how I feel when I get a chance to catch Brokeback Mountain on DVD)
Okay. Maybe I missed it 'cause I've been in & out but...
I can't believe that Jon Stewart et.al. haven't broken out the "It's hard out here for a chimp" with every mention of King Kong.
From what I've seen if Jon Stewart gets any flack about his hosting job it wasn't him, it was the crowd. I have never seen a bunch of less enthusiastic award-winners. To eliminate the double negative: Were they serving cough syrup in the lobby?
Maybe Actor, Actress, Director, Film will get the party started right... but I'm not counting on Ang Lee to do the 40-yard chairback dash.
This is the worst Best Picture choice of the decade.
And this decade has had some serious stinkers.
Don't kid yourself. This is the worst Best Picture choice in the history of the Oscars.
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
Hehe, that's kinda funny. :)
Yeah. You're right.
Well, either way, history was made.
I don't believe that Crash won. I think that everything else lost. Their nominations were all fatally flawed, their votes were split with another movie and they could get consolation prizes.
Munich
flaw: No votes from Spielberg resenters and Jews.
split: Liberal-political and "based on a true story."
consolation prize: Spielberg has his own studio and can crush the members of the Academy with his wallet.
Goodnight and Good Luck
flaw: No black and white films.
split: Liberal-political and "based on a true story."
consolation prize: Best Actor: Philp Seymour Hoffman. (And that is why "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" won, as a consolation prize for Terrence Howard. There's no other possible explanation.)
Capote
flaw: No gays.
split: Liberal and "based on a true story."
consolation prize: Best Supporting Actor: George Clooney.
Brokeback Mountain
flaw: Really, no gays. I'm serious. Knock it off.
split: Liberal. And in case you didn't hear me: No gay cowboys.
consolation prize: Original Score: Gustavo Santaolalla, Best Adapted Screenplay: Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana and Best Director: Ang Lee.
"It's Hard Out Hear for a Pimp" won because it was the best of the nominees.
So you are telling me that nominees win because they are "the best" in their category? I don't think that's how things work. I don't want to think that. That would upset me. I'm allergic to being upset. I break out in irritation every time I get upset.
But I definitely agree with the premise of your theory.
No, no, no.
It is rare that the academy gets any categories right.
However, I was just saying that it seemed that the other two songs competing were boring as sin.
"...boring as sin." Which is why I'm surprised that neither of them won.
I am truly looking forward to how the Oscars fit "It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp" into future Best Song melodies.
...or how they work it as a musical cue when Terrence Howard is a presenter next year.
Is it wrong that I keep wanting to call him Terrence Trent H'ward?
It feels wrong.
You were right about Best Editing, I admit. And about Best Foreign Language Film.
But Best Picture? What the ****? I thought Nicholson was making fun. A surprise really, and a very pleasent one. YES, Crash is better than Brokeback Mountain!
God. Crash was almost intolerably awful.
I have never been THIS dissapointed with the Oscars.
With a choice between overwrought and subtle, they always choose the former.
Nope. I disagree. Crash is an amazing film. I thoroughly enjoyed it. Brokeback Mountain is good too, but maybe a little lenghty at times.
Amazing? Really?
I just don't get it.
My thoughts on the Oscars...
Thank you, Academy, for actually surprising me. The upsets are the most exciting part of this night, and the Best Picture upset was a huge one.
But screw you, Academy, for not choosing the best film, Brokeback Mountain. Though I did like Crash too.
Thank you, Academy for choosing the most deserving score, Gustavo Santaolalla's wonderful one for Brokeback Mountain.
But screw you, John Williams. Every year I predict you for Best Score, and every year I am wrong. See if I ever predict you again. We are through, Williams, you hear me? Through.
And screw you too, short films, for being so damn hard to predict. I was 0 for 3.
Thank you, State Farm, for your blurring of the lines between fantasy and reality. Each time a State Farm agent would come on TV and tell me a "true story," I would notice the words "Dramatization" in fine print at the bottom. I'm glad State Farm respects the intelligence of its audience and knows we can appreciate some delicious post-modernism. I wouldn't be surprised if Charlie Kaufman wrote the screenplays for those commercials.
Screw you, Academy, for those lame montages and for the thinly-veiled, self-serving pleas to audiences to stop enjoying DVDs and go back to the theaters. 2005 saw a slight dip in movie profits from 2004, but it was still one of the highest-grossing years of all-time for the movies. But the MPAA wants to blame that on piracy and DVDs, so here we have the presenters constantly talking about how movies can only be truly appreciated in the theater. What a cheap, pandering ploy.
Thank you, Gavin Hood, the director of Tsotsi, for the best acceptance speech of the night.
And I have mixed feelings about Robert Altman. He was dignified and grateful, but I was expecting something irreverent and controversial from the maverick who has been nominated for a Best Director Oscar five times and never won.
Thank you, Jon Stewart, for being very funny, even though your opening monologue was not very well-received. I was laughing, Jon.
Screw you, Academy, for that lame underscoring music you played during all the speeches. So now people are told they've gone on for too long based on silence rather than loud music? Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
Why could no one get through a speech without mentioning how cool George Clooney is? I mean, sure he's really cool, but still...
Why were Meryl Streep and Lily Tomlin funnier than Will Ferrell and Steve Carell?
As you can see, many ups and downs for me...
Meryl and Lily were a stitch.
I found the constant underscore to be ridiculous.
I also thought it was shameful (as the cast evidently did too, judging from the five-second reaction shot) that they completely cut off the second writer of Crash. I may not have liked his work, but he deserved a chance to get A word out.
I am very sympathetic to most of your reactions...
"What a cheap pandering ploy." It's not pandering if you're terrified about having to take a drastic pay cut because your profits are being outsourced to India, China, Malaysia, Iran, Thailand, Romania...
"Thank you, Gavin Hood, the director of Tsotsi, for the best acceptance speech of the night." And for revealing the pathetic Hollywood audience for what it is. Amandla Awethu! You incredible jerks.
"Why could no one get through a speech without mentioning how cool George Clooney is?" Because he is beloved by Hollywood, one of the very few true movie stars. I thought his speech was the best; it was note perfect. He was self-deprecating, modest, intelligent and a self-congratulatory nod to the Hollywood community. What more could a Member of the Academy want?
"Thank you, Jon Stewart, for being very funny." Exactly. Thank you for calling the audience out because Three Six Mafia was more excited to win than people who have been dreaming of Oscars all of their lives. And for the lead that Three Six Mafia has over Martin Scorsese in Oscar wins.
"Why were Meryl Streep and Lily Tomlin funnier than Will Ferrell and Steve Carell?" Because Meryl Streep is the greatest comic actor of her generation. She comedically out-timed Lily Tomlin. They had the most difficult presenting task and they gave the best introduction (at least that I saw.)
I wonder if anyone has thought about putting them in a move? Aside from Robert Altman, that is.
Huh. Stephen Colbert actually predicted the Big 5 correctly on his March 2nd Colbert Report show. Nice.