Oscar Predictions - 2004

  • Best Picture: The Aviator (IMHO, Sideways and Million Dollar Baby are both better films, but the movie with the most nominations almost always wins Best Picture.)
  • Best Director: Martin Scorsese (Not for his work in The Aviator, but for everything he has done.)
  • Best Lead Actor: Jamie Foxx (If someone else wins this, my eyes will pop out of their sockets.)
  • Best Supporting Actor: Morgan Freeman (He's been stiffed too many times in the past. I guess Clive Owen could provide some competition, but since the Academy didn't nominated Closer's screenplay or directing, I'm guessing they weren't too thrilled with it.)
  • Best Lead Actress: Hilary Swank (Though she might actually be a dark horse to Annette Bening.)
  • Best Supporting Actress: Natalie Portman (Despite what I said about Clive Owen, I do think Portman will win this one. She deserves it more than Blanchett, who is her major competition.)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay: Sideways (But Million Dollar Baby could take it away.)
  • Best Original Screenplay: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Charlie Kaufman will finally get his due. Probably. The Aviator could sweep it away.)
  • Best Animated Film: The Incredibles (Though there actually is competition for this category, unlike every other time. Shrek 2 could easily take it.)
  • Best Art Direction: The Aviator
  • Best Cinematography: The Aviator (They worked their asses off to make the film imitate the style of classic Technicolor.)
  • Best Costumes: The Aviator
  • Best Documentary: Super Size Me (Purely due to its gross.)
  • Best Editing: The Aviator
  • Best Foreign Film: The Sea Inside (This seems like a lock, but The Chorus could possibly steal it - after all, it was nominated for Best Song too.)
  • Best Makeup: Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
  • Best Score: Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (Sorry we didn't nominate you last year, John Williams!)
  • Best Song: Accidentally in Love (I really have no clue what's going to win this, but I keep changing my guess anyway. Odds are I will have been right at some point.)
  • Best Sound: Ray
  • Best Sound Editing: Spider-Man 2
  • Best Visual Effects: Spider-Man 2
Cloned From: 

Oddly enough, there's only one category for which I have seen all the nominated films: Best Supporting Actor. Even stranger, the exact same thing happened to me with 2002 (for the same category).

How odd. But not for 'best picture', eh?

I will run around stabbing puppies if Kaufman gets snubbed.

Nope. I must have a bizarre affinity for movies with great supporting actor performances.

Now now. What good will stabbing puppies do? Puppies don't vote on the awards. Go stab some Academy members.

I don't have to buy plane tickets to stab puppies.

Aren't there like 1500 of them or something? I'm sure at least a few of them live in Minnesota.

Yep I agree with most of the predictions, although Aviator will eat up a few more awards in my opinion, they wanna lick Scorsese's bum this year and I'm thinking the tongue will be large (to use a really gross analogy).


I agree with most of your predictions:
Best Picture/ Best Lead. Actor/ Best Lead. Actress/ Best Supp. Actor/ Best Animated Film/ Best Art Direction/ Best Ad. Screenplay/ Best Or. Screenplay/ For. Language Film/ Sound Editing/ Sound/ Vis. Effects.
Where I don't think so (even though in technical categories, most of my predix are shots in the dark, too): Best Director (I hope for Scorsese, yet I'm afraid that Eastwood could win once more), Best Supp. Actress (still going with Cate), Best Cinematography (House of Fl. Daggers???), Best Cost. Design (The Aviator?), Score (Find. Neverland, if this film doesn't win anything else, but your reasoning is very interesting), Song (a total guess, really: The Polar Express), Makeup (The Sea Inside?).

But I should be cautious with my predictions, because for the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes they were pretty often wrong.

I'll take your predix for this, if you don't mind.

Sure, go ahead. I might change them in the future, though, so be warned.

No problem for that, I'll frequently check this out.

Scorsese's way, way overdue. Eastwood already has his directing Oscar. Clint did win the Director's Guild Award, which is generally a good predictor for the Oscar, but I'm still going with Marty on this one. I guess Natalie's the dark horse, and maybe I'm biased since I wasn't that impressed with Cate, but I'm going with her anyway. Her performance was awesome. House of Flying Daggers probably deserves Best Cinematography, but I think the cinematography in The Aviator was a fantastic achievement that will not go unrewarded. You're probably right on Best Costume Design; in fact, I think I'll change that. Never underestimate the power of John Williams. My Best Song is a total guess too, and I might change it again. And the makeup for Lemony Snicket was pretty fun and elaborate; I think it'll probably win.

2005 BAFTA winners
Best Film: The Avaitor
Best Director: Mike Leigh (Vera Drake)
Oringinal Screenplay: John Logan (The Aviator)
Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne / Jim Taylor (Sideways)
Foreign Language Film: Michael Nozik / Edgard Tenembaum / Karen Tenkhoff / Walter Salles - Diaros De Motocicleta
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Jamie Foxx (Ray)
Best Actress in a leading Role: Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Clive Owen (Closer) &nbsp Fans of Clive Owen should check this out.
Best Actress in a supporting role: Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)
Cinematography: Dion Beebe / Paul Cameron (Collateral)
Orange Film Of The Year (only film voted by members of the public): Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

My thoughts on the Oscar ceremony:

I didn't really get my surprise of the night. I watch the Oscars for the big upsets, but while there were some small victories (though I predicted The Aviator for Best Picture, I thought Million Dollar Baby was the better film), I didn't get my "Talk to Her winning best screenplay" moment. I guess I was pretty surprised by the Best Song winner, but who really gives a shit. Oh well, maybe next year...

Speaking of Best Song, Beyonce really needs to stop singing.

Damn, Chris Rock was mean. I may make fun of Jude Law, but it's all in good fun. Sean Penn's defense was pretty awkward though. Rock had a couple good lines, and hey, at least he wasn't Whoopi Goldberg.

Great to see Sidney Lumet get a lifetime achievement award, a really underrated director.

And Martin Scorsese get screwed over again. 5 nominations and 0 wins. That puts him in the same league as, uh, Alfred Hitchcock and Robert Altman. Still, maybe this will push him to make a better film than Gangs of New York and The Aviator. Both were good, but neither really lived up to his best work. C'mon, Marty, you can do better! Then it will be your year! And don't tell Marty if you see him, but I honestly liked Clint's direction better anyway - though I wanted Marty to win for his whole career achievement.

Acting nominations: no surprises there. My one dark horse pick lost to Cate Blanchett's lame caricature of Katharine Hepburn. But then again, I was the only person I know who was unimpressed with her performance. Oh well, I could think of it as an award for the other performances of her career, none of which I've seen (well she was decent in The Life Aquatic and Pushing Tin, I guess...)

Is the Academy trying to prove that John Williams's balls are no longer in their collective mouth? He hasn't won since Schindler's List, despite being nominated 12 times since then (and yes, that is more times than there are years)! I'm surprised Finding Neverland won - of all the things to notice about that film, the score never struck me as high up on the list - but perhaps they were campaigning for Best Score as a consolation prize because they figured they wouldn't win anything else.

Yay Sideways! Yay Charlie Kaufman! Yay screenplays!

P.S. Actually I think the funniest line of the night (well, maybe aside from the Adam Sandler bit) was the Spider-Man 2 visual effects guy saying he was glad there wasn't a fourth chapter of Lord of the Rings. You said it, brother.

P.P.S. I have got to start listening to lbangs's Best Documentary predictions. "Born Into Brothels over Super Size Me? Are you crazy?" I thought. Maybe I should've seen it coming, since when I saw his predictions last year (if I remember correctly) I thought "Fog of War over Capturing the Friedmans? Are you crazy?"... but of course look what won.

Aw, I love reading these lists...

One of the trickiest part of guessing the Oscars is deciding at what moment the ballots were cast. Every year, some person or film gets some major momentum heading into the homestretch, but it is too late. The train's done left the station.

I think that is why I lean toward Paradise Now for best foreign picture; I didn't hear nearly so much about the negative campaign until after the fact, but then, I don't live in Hollywood.

I could very likely be wrong about Hoffman (everybody seems to think I am), but I wonder if the "late mo" theory applies to Giamatti. It was hardly his most demanding role, Hollywood wants to award George, and he did some terrific campaigning and even tossed the "I injured myself for the role" hat into the ring. Still, you could very well be correct...

We may disagree on Best Score, but I think you understand my reasoning perfectly. Besides, which score do you still remember?

Tons of fun, I tell ya!

Shalom, y'all!

L. Bangs

Crap. I meant to clone my 2004 list, not edit over it. I'm going to copy your comment to the clone I'm about to make.

Definitely an interesting pick for Best Foreign Language Film. On a German site, they were absolutely sure about Tsotsi winning this. I still think Palestine will get it.

Maybe it's you who brings bad luck to John Williams by predicting him... I laugh loud when Williams loses tonight. :D

Oh, and I'll show you all for Best Editing. The Constant Gardener is going to bag this, and not Crash!!!

And why are we all so sure about Brokeback Mountain winning Best Picture? Last year, most of us also saw The Aviator winning before it actually lost. Maybe it's gonna be Crash. Then I know at least someone here who won't be very happy...

Crap. I meant to clone my 2004 list, not edit over it. I'm going to copy your comment to the clone I'm about to make.