Oscar Predictions - 2002

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Tags: 
  • Best picture:
  • Chicago
  • Gangs of New York
  • The Hours *
  • The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
  • The Pianist
  • Actor:
  • Adrien Brody, The Pianist
  • Nicolas Cage, Adaptation
  • Michael Caine, The Quiet American
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York *
  • Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
  • Actress:
  • Salma Hayek, Frida
  • Nicole Kidman, The Hours
  • Diane Lane, Unfaithful
  • Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven *
  • Renee Zellweger, Chicago
  • Supporting actor:
  • Chris Cooper, Adaptation *
  • Ed Harris, The Hours *
  • Paul Newman, Road to Perdition
  • John C. Reilly, Chicago
  • Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can
  • Supporting actress:
  • Kathy Bates, About Schmidt
  • Julianne Moore, The Hours
  • Queen Latifah, Chicago
  • Meryl Streep, Adaptation
  • Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago *
  • Director:
  • Rob Marshall, Chicago *
  • Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York
  • Stephen Daldry, The Hours
  • Roman Polanski, The Pianist
  • Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her
  • Foreign film:
  • El Crimen del Padre Amaro, Mexico
  • Hero, People's Republic of China
  • The Man Without a Past, Finland *
  • Nowhere in Africa, Germany
  • Zus & Zo, the Netherlands
  • What should win is either "Talk to Her" or "Y Tu Mama Tambien", neither of which was eligible for nomination
  • Adapted screenplay:
  • Peter Hedges, Chris Weitz and Paul Weitz, About a Boy
  • Charlie Kaufman and Donald Kaufman, Adaptation
  • Bill Condon, Chicago
  • David Hare, The Hours *
  • Ronald Harwood, The Pianist
  • Original screenplay:
  • Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven
  • Jay Cocks, Steve Zaillian and Kenneth Lonergan, Gangs of New York
  • Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding *
  • Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her
  • Carlos Cuaron and Alfonso Cuaron, Y Tu Mama Tambien
  • Cinematography:
  • Dion Beebe, Chicago
  • Edward Lachman, Far From Heaven
  • Michael Ballhaus, Gangs of New York
  • Pawel Edelman, The Pianist
  • Conrad Hall, Road to Perdition *
  • Animated feature:
  • Ice Age
  • Lilo & Stitch
  • Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron
  • Spirited Away *
  • Treasure Planet
  • Art direction:
  • Chicago
  • Frida
  • Gangs of New York *
  • The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
  • Road to Perdition
  • Sound:
  • Chicago
  • Gangs of New York
  • The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers *
  • Road to Perdition
  • Spider-Man
  • Sound editing:
  • The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
  • Minority Report *
  • Road to Perdition
  • Original score:
  • Catch Me If You Can, John Williams
  • Far From Heaven, Elmer Bernstein *
  • Frida, Elliot Goldenthal
  • The Hours, Philip Glass
  • Road to Perdition, Thomas Newman
  • Original song:
  • Burn It Blue from Frida, Elliot Goldenthal and Julie Taymor
  • Father and Daughter from The Wild Thornberrys Movie, Paul Simon
  • The Hands That Built America from Gangs of New York, Bono, the Edge, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen
  • I Move On from Chicago, John Kander and Fred Ebb *
  • Lose Yourself from 8 Mile, Eminem, Jeff Bass and Luis Resto
  • Costume design:
  • Chicago
  • Frida *
  • Gangs of New York
  • The Hours
  • The Pianist
  • Documentary feature:
  • Bowling for Columbine
  • Daughter From Danang
  • Prisoner of Paradise
  • Spellbound *
  • Winged Migration
  • Film editing:
  • Chicago
  • Gangs of New York
  • The Hours
  • The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers *
  • The Pianist (OK, so I haven't actually heard anything about Pianist's editing, but I feel that I'm biased against it because I haven't seen it, and I think it should win SOMETHING)
  • Makeup:
  • Frida
  • The Time Machine *
  • Visual effects:
  • The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
  • Spider-Man
  • Star Wars: Episode II--Attack of the Clones *
Author Comments: 

Key
---
nominee in bold - I think it will win
nominee in italics - I think it should win
nominee in bold and italics - I think it both will win and should win
* - a possible dark horse candidate

P.S. I have not seen every movie on here, so I'm basing some of my judgements on word of mouth, etc.

3/22/03 - I made a few last-minute changes here:
(1) that "Chicago" will win best picture rather than "The Hours"
(2) that Moore deserves to win Best Actress more than Kidman (although Kidman will still win)
(3) that "Nowhere in Africa" will win Best Foreign Film rather than "The Man Without a Past"
(4) that "Gangs of New York" deserves to win Best Art Direction more than "Chicago" (although "Chicago" will still win)

Let me just say that I really hope John Williams wins for "Catch Me If You Can." He's been nominated every year for the past 8 years, but he hasn't won since 1994. And he's a brilliant composer.

3/24/03 - Well. I got 11 right. That's not very impressive. But don't blame me - it was a very surprising Oscar ceremony last night. I was pleasantly surprised (i.e., the one that I thought SHOULD win but WOULD NOT) three times - for "Talk to Her"'s screenplay, "Spirited Away" as best Animated film (I haven't seen it, but I've heard very good thigns), and Conrad L. Hall's cinematography for Road to Perdish.

Commentary:

Best Picture - I made this last-minute change because I had originally thought the Academy would be more likely to pick the dramatic film over the lighter fare. However, as the pressure mounted, I saw that "Chicago" was the obvious choice. Of course "Chicago" won, but didn't this seem inconsistent with the other awards? I mean, the Academy thought that "The Pianist" had a better screenplay, a better director, and a better lead actor... what else is there? OK, it sounds nice, and has good costumes, and Catherine Zeta-Jones, but still...

Best Actor - This was a total upset. Not having seen "The Pianist", I can't make any remarks on Brody's acting. But I think that his telling the music to shut up during his acceptance speech, along with this upset, will go down as one of the great moments in Oscar history. BTW, this is kinda like 1950 when Judy Holliday ("Born Yesterday") beat out Bette Davis ("All About Eve") and Katharine Hepburn ("African Queen").

Best Actress - Yes, this was a shoo-in for Kidman. I still say that Moore deserved the award.

Supporting Actor - Now this one, I might reconsider. I had said that Cooper's performance looked too easy, but maybe he just made it look easy. I was impressed by John C. Reilly and Paul Newman, and also Harris and Walken, but I'm happy for Cooper. It couldn't have happened to a nicer guy. Interesting tidbit: This is the only category where I had seen all of the nominated movies.

Supporting Actress - Bah. Catherine gave a fun performance, but if you're looking for a fun performance in "Chicago", Queen Latifah was just as energetic and a better singer. I'd also take Streep over Zeta-Jones, and maybe Moore too.

Director - Dammit, why does the Academy consistently snub Martin Scorsese? The direction for "Gangs" was excellent, and Scorsese is arguably the greatest director still working. Still, Polanski's win makes up for his loss for "Chinatown", which was brilliantly directed but lost to the stiff competition in Francis Ford Coppola for "Godfather Part II." Even though I loved "Chicago", I'm kinda glad first-timer Rob Marshall didn't win. Ditto for Stephen Daldry - the direction wasn't what made "The Hours" great. I would've loved to see Almodovar win, but I didn't think that was going to happen.

Foreign film - I think this was a shoo-in as well.

Adapted screenplay - Another upset. I haven't seen "The Pianist", but it would be very hard to convince me that "Adaptation" didn't deserve to win. The script was brilliant.

Original screenplay - This left me absolutely ecstatic. Since when does the Academy give the award to the person who deserves it? The only sad part was that this left "Far From Heaven" with no Oscars, when it certainly deserves at least SOMETHING.

Cinematography - Another good call. The camera work for "Road to Perdition" was beautiful.

Animated feature - Perhaps I was too cynical about the Academy, but I didn't really think they would pick "Spirited Away", which I know is the best animated film on this list without even seeing it. I was pleasantly surprised.

Art direction - This was a very disappointing award, for "Chicago"'s art direction just wasn't as good as the masterful design of the Five Points in "Gangs." Or take "Two Towers", which I'm sure had beautiful set design even though I did not see it. BTW: This left "Gangs" with 10 nominations and no awards, surely that is a record or something?

Sound - "Chicago" was probably the best choice here. It sounded very good.

Sound editing - I was sad that "Minority Report" walked away with no Oscars, but now that I think about it, "Two Towers" probably did have better sound. The first LOTR movie had excellent sound as well.

Original score - I was originally very surprised at this, because I thought that it was down to "Catch Me If You Can", "Far From Heaven", or "The Hours." But now that I think about it, "Frida"'s score did win a Golden Globe, so maybe I should've seen it coming. Whatever.

Original song - I'm not an Eminem fan. In fact, you could say that his "music" makes me violently ill. Any of the other songs deserved it more. U2 or Paul Simon would have pleased me. Even "I Move On" or "Burn It Blue" wouldn't have been so bad. But Eminem? Since when do the Academy members like this kind of music anyway?

Costume design - Once again. "Chicago" did not deserve to win. "Gangs" had much better costumes.

Documentary feature - Another shoo-in, but Moore's speech was embarrassing. He has every right to express his opinion, but the Academy Awards ceremony is not an appropriate forum for him to do so. It also showed a total lack of respect for the brave soldiers who were fighting for America at that very moment. Don't think that I am a Bush fan, because in fact, I agree with Moore; still, his behavior was inexcusable.

Film editing - See my note above. "Chicago" probably did actually deserve to win this one.

Makeup - Duh.

Visual effects - Duh.

If you want the best Oscar coverage on the web, you should check out www.oscarwatch.com ... it also has several links to other Oscar coverage. It has running charts, and lists the winners of major awards prior to the Oscars.