Oscar Nominations 2008
Submitted by AJDaGreat on Fri, 01/16/2009 - 12:26
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- Best Picture: Right now it seems like the most likely choices, which are the same as my predictions, are...
- Slumdog Millionaire
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Milk
- Frost/Nixon
- The Dark Knight
- The first four seem pretty solid, but The Dark Knight could get bumped off; unlike the other four films, it's only gotten moderate precursor support, being nominated for the DGA, the PGA, the WGA, and the ACE, but not BAFTA, the Globes, or SAG ensemble. However, my gut instinct tells me to keep it on, partially because I always thought the film was too big - and too different from the other nominees - to really ignore.
- Another part of me is just skeptical that another film can take its place. I am told that it's rare for a film to miss out on BAFTA, the Globes, and SAG ensemble and still get nominated for Best Picture, but what did those precursors nominate instead? The Reader, Doubt, and Revolutionary Road. The reception was pretty weak for the first two films, I think too muted to carry them to Best Picture noms. Revolutionary Road is a good possibility, but my gut tells me that if the Academy has started nominating films like No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood, they'll similarly nominate the more original Dark Knight over the conventional Academy film Revolutionary Road.
- Who knows, though? I'm still waiting for the Academy to surprise me by assuring me that either Ben Button, Frost/Nixon, or Milk isn't as strong as I thought. But if I had to guess, those five would be my picks.
- Best Actor - I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict a snub for Clint Eastwood:
- Sean Penn, Milk
- Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
- Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
- Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
- I feel like the love for Gran Torino is dying down, but love for Richard Jenkins is still strong. Plus, why would the Academy want to reward Clint Eastwood for the worst performance he's ever given?
- Honestly I think Leonardo DiCaprio is more likely to take one of the last two spots than Clint. Much as I love Brad Pitt, Leo's performance is more impressive. The first three are very strong, however.
- Best Actress
- Meryl Streep, Doubt
- Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
- Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
- Melissa Leo, Frozen River
- Sally Hawkins, Happy Go Lucky
- I may be a fool for not predicting Oscar nom mainstay Cate Blanchett or the wonderful Kristin Scott Thomas, but I think the last two are strong. Love for I've Loved You So Long is dying out, I think, and as much as Oscar likes nominating the token foreign film actor among one of these categories, I'm not going to avoid predicting Leo or Hawkins based on that rule.
- Best Supporting Actor
- Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
- Josh Brolin, Milk
- Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
- Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
- I'm going to go with wishful predicting even though it often leads me astray and say that Robert Downey Jr. will not be nominated for Tropic Thunder. I love Downey, and if he gives an Oscar-worthy performance, I will fully support him, but his role in Tropic Thunder ain't it.
- Really, though, how can Downey compete with Dev Patel when love for Slumdog is so overwhelming, or with Michael Shannon when he's playing a character with a mental handicap? These picks just seem more likely.
- I really want James Franco to get in here for Milk, but I just don't think it's going to happen. I will be very happy if it does though. He was more impressive to me than Mr. Patel or Mr. Brolin.
- Best Supporting Actress
- Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
- Kate Winslet, The Reader
- Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
- Viola Davis, Doubt
- Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Winslet's performance in The Reader is now clearly going to get nominated, and as much as I loved Rosemarie DeWitt and Debra Winger in Rachel Getting Married, it seems like buzz for them is dying out. Viola Davis still impresses. I think Henson may be on the thinnest ice here and could be overtaken by Amy Adams or DeWitt, but these are my picks.
- Best Director
- Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
- David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Gus van Sant, Milk
- Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
- Andrew Stanton, WALL-E
- Many are predicting the directors to match my top five for pictures, but I'm convinced some offbeat choice is going to sneak in. I'm picking Stanton for WALL-E as a consolation prize for not nominating it for Best Picture, but it also may very well be Darren Aronofsky.
- Of course, I may be a fool to bet against Ron Howard, but his direction is easily the most understated of the bunch, and the Academy tends to like this category to be pretty flashy.
- Best Adapted Screenplay
- Slumdog Millionaire
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Frost/Nixon
- Doubt
- The Reader
- Though some are calling The Dark Knight, I have a feeling it won't make this list; as great as the screenplay is, people will convince themselves the film works for other reasons. I think then it comes down to Revolutionary Road vs. The Reader, and I suspect the Academy will prefer the latter, partially because it feels more literary. I could be totally wrong though.
- Best Original Screenplay
- Milk
- Vicky Cristina Barcelona
- WALL-E
- Happy-Go-Lucky
- The Wrestler
- The WGA also nominated The Visitor and Burn After Reading, but my guess is that the Academy will prefer Happy-Go-Lucky and WALL-E. Still, both are possibilities, especially The Visitor which could easily sneak in. Rachel Getting Married is also possible.
Author Comments:
That's all I got.
Cloned From:
AJ likes:
(1) getting Best Actor perfect
(2) no Gran Torino anywhere
(3) correctly predicting Michael Shannon, as well as the fact that Michael Shannon was nominated for his terrific performance
(4) correctly predicting Melissa Leo, as well as the fact that Melissa Leo was nominated for her terrific performance
(5) the fact that Kate Winslet was accurately nominated for her lead role in The Reader
(6) getting Adapted Screenplay perfect
(7) In Bruges's Original Screenplay nomination
(8) Frozen River's Original Screenplay nomination
(9) Revolutionary Road getting nominated for the things it should've gotten nominated for and not for the things it shouldn't have gotten nominated for
AJ doesn't like:
(1) The Reader instead of The Dark Knight for Best Picture and Best Director. The Dark Knight is a better film, and it pretty much ensures no one's going to watch the telecast now. Still, I should've seen this coming. I actually had the gut instinct back in November to predict that The Reader would come from nowhere and get on the nominations list, but when it got mediocre-to-bad reviews, I put it out of my mind.
(2) no Waltz with Bashir in Best Animated Feature
(3) no Synecdoche, New York anywhere
(4) The Wrestler only gets nominated for its actors instead of for screenplay, song, etc.
(5) Robert Downey Jr. for stupid Tropic Thunder
So. The Academy has proven that when you give it Oscar contenders by maverick indie directors like Danny Boyle, Gus van Sant, David Fincher, Christopher Nolan, and Darren Aronofsky, it will resist the barrage of artsy influence. Oh, it'll nominate Boyle's film for 10 awards, but throw in the best superhero movie ever made and they'll counter with a pretty good Holocaust film. Stephen Daldry and his film represent old-school Academy tastes, whose supporters cry out to be recognized even as the majority has started honoring things like No Country for Old Men.
What does this mean for the awards? I think not a whole lot. The people who wanted The Dark Knight will now rally even harder behind their more interesting choices. Some of the people who wanted The Reader will be influenced by their spirit; others will just be in the minority.
Now that there's no fear of splitting votes, I say the Best Actress award pretty much belongs to Kate Winslet already. Given all this information, I may have to rethink the supporting categories - actress which I thought was easily Winslet's, and actor which I still think will go to Heath Ledger, though due to the muted response to the film he may be on shakier ground than I had realized.
I was floored at both of the nominations for Frozen River; I especially didn't see that Screenplay nod coming!
Good job on nailing the Best Actor category!
I didn't realize you weren't a fan of Downey in Tropic Thunder. I loved him in it, so I'm pleased with his nomination.
I am nearly dumbfounded that the Academy didn't go for the Springsteen tune...
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
I didn't see the Screenplay nod coming either, but I'm certainly glad about it! Certainly more deserving than Vicky Cristina Barcelona, which wasn't one of Woody's strongest scripts. I am sad The Wrestler's script missed out here though...
I really liked Downey only at the very end of Tropic Thunder. I honestly found his performance-within-a-performance of the badass African-American soldier unconvincing and rarely laugh-out-loud funny, though parts were mildly amusing. I've loved Downey in plenty of other films, but I couldn't watch Downey in Tropic Thunder as well as James Franco's terrific performance in Milk and say that the former was more deserving of an Oscar.
I think the Academy has decided that except in extreme cases, the more integral a song is to the film's main action, the better its chances for Best Song. Hence the three songs from Enchanted getting nominated last year, and hence the Bollywood-style songs that more aggressively work their way into Slumdog's style getting nominated over Springsteen. The Boss just sings that song over the closing credits of The Wrestler, and as great as it is, what does AMPAS know about judging songs on their own merits anyway?
That's how I excuse this idiotic exclusion to myself, in any case...
As for Best Actor, I owe it all to hating Gran Torino. For once my wishful predicting worked. A different site was requesting "No Guts, No Glory"-style predictions, and one of mine was that Gran Torino would get shut out of every category. And what do you know... :-)