Oscar 2004 Predictions - Nominees
Submitted by lbangs on Thu, 12/18/2003 - 11:39
Tags:
- Best Picture
- Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
- Mystic River
- Cold Mountain
- Seabiscuit
- Lost in Translation
- (Maybe: In America)
- Best Director
- Peter Jackson
- Clint Eastwood
- Anthony Minghella
- Sofia Coppola
- Tim Burton (No guts, no glory)
- (Maybe: Peter Weir)
- Best Actor
- Bill Murray
- Johnny Depp
- Peter Dinklage
- Sean Penn
- Ben Kingsley
- (Maybe: Russell Crowe; Jude Law)
- Best Actress
- Charlize Theron
- Nicole Kidman
- Naomi Watts
- Diane Keaton
- Uma Thurman
- (Maybe: Samantha Morton; Gwyneth Paltrow)
- Best Supporting Actress
- Scarlett Johansson
- Renee Zellweger
- Patricia Clarkson
- Marcia Gay Harden
- Holly Hunter
- (Maybe: Keisha Castle-Hughes)
- Best Supporting Actor
- Tim Robbins
- Albert Finney
- Sean Astin
- Benicio Del Toro
- Alec Baldwin
- (Maybe: Paul Bettany)
- Best Original Screenplay
- Lost in Translation
- Finding Nemo
- 21 Grams
- Love, Actually
- In America
- (Maybe: Thirteen)
- Best Adapted Screenplay
- Mystic River
- Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
- Seabiscuit
- American Splendor
- Cold Mountain
- (Maybe: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World; Girl with a Pearl Earring)
Author Comments:
I've sorta put the front-runners first, but the rest are out of order.
I think that Seabiscuit will end up fading away before the nominees are announced. The Golden Globe nods really helped Cold Mountain, Big Fish, Seabiscuit, and Lost in Translation. The Last Samurai was dealt a pretty big shutout in the Picture and Director categories.
But, the Globe nominees are usually kinda wacky about some films. So, it's not the be all end all.
With Miramax behind Cold Mountain, I always figured it was a lock for several nominations. Lost in Translation is a bit more iffy. At the least, I believe Murray will finally get his nomination, but will the film carry over? I suspect so, but we'll see...
Seabiscuit's on DVD, and Hollywood loves to throw a crowdpleaser into the mix, but you might be right. I'd be shocked if Big Fish gets much more than a Best Director (I really doubt any Best Picture claim) nod, and even that's no sure thing.
If any film rises in value between here and there, I suspect it might be In America. 21 Grams might also gain more notice for its acting.
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
Having vollowed buzz since this summer, Cold Mountain was really hurting about a week ago. It was ignored by the AFI top ten, snubbed of BP at the NBR, and was competing with several other epics this year.
Fortunately for Harvey, The Golden Globes did their usual Miramax sucking up.
That said, I am thrilled with Uma's nomination.
Oh, and if Scarlett Johansson gets nominated, it's gonna be for Supporting Actress. The studio is running her campaign in that category to try to get the win. The Globes pushed her into lead, but it's similar to Chicago last yeay. Scarlett will end up in the Supporting category.
That's very good to know. Thanks!
That's what I get for making this up from the hip, as opposed to checking up on matters!
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
Jack Nicholson... for "Something's Gotta Give"?
He may have been nominated 12 times, but that doesn't really strike me as a movie, or as a role, that he'd be nominated for.
Then again, I haven't seen it, so I could certainly be wrong.
A stretch, I know, but I've learned the hard way to never underestimate the Academy's love of repeats. The film's surprise success might also intrigue and encourage older Academy members who like the fact a romantic film based on older characters can work and pull an audience.
Or, of course, I might chicken out and drop him as we closer to nomination time...
Actually, due to my less than ideal money situation, the only film above I've seen is Kill Bill. That's sad; this is the first year since my young days where I've had such a small "seen" ratio at this time of year. I've been making due with my Netflix subscription!
I do suspect, however, that my wife and I will catch the third Lord of the Rings soon...
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
I've been chickening out when it comes to Johnny Depp. I'd LOVE to see him nominated, but I just don't have enough faith in the academy to believe that they would actually nominate him. I really hope you're right. Same goes for Uma.
After the Golden Globes, I had to drop Gwyneth from my list. That was her last hope, and even those starlovers didn't nominate her.
I wouldn't count out Ben Kingsley quite yet, even is the rest of the film is ignored, I have a feeling he'll land a spot.
I think Kingsley has a great shot at a nomination. If I didn't have a hankering hunch about Depp, he'd certainly be the one to take his place on my list.
I'm tempted to drop Gwyneth, and may as we get closer to the announcements, but for now...
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
I think that it's best to stick with one's gut instinct, it helps a lot. Last year I predicted Pedro's director nomination at the very last minute based on a gut instinct.
Personally, I think Mr. Depp deserves the award. He has given so many incredible performances and came so close to winning. Quite frankly, I think that some of the different characters he has played have been ignored just for the fact that there a little odd. I am all for different and all for Depp so I really hope that he takes home the gold!
I haven't seen Pirates yet (actually, I think I have plans to see it at the dollar theater tomorrow night), so I really don't know if Depp deserves it or not. I do think he has a good shot at least getting a nomination, though, even if he is right now seen more as a dark horse.
We'll see, eh?
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
Alright, with Cold Mountain's sudden signs of weakness (no DGA?), I've moved Depp into my predictions. However, Jude Law has moved back out. Now I'm worried that I'm overestimating Master & Commander's chances.
I'm fairly confident with my predicitions for Best Picture, but I'm prepared for this to be the first year in 3 years that I misjudge the race.
Well, I caught Pirates last night, and I think my hunch about Depp's chances have decreased a bit as a result. It just isn't an Oscar role, I fear. I've inched him down and moved Ben Kingsley up, among other changes and additions (finally got supporters up here; will I ever get screenplays up?).
For some reason, one I'm probably really wrong about, I've never thought Master and Commander looked like a very great contender. While I chicked out and swapped Weir and Burton's places, I still just don't feel much happening on this film. I'm probably wrong. (I have a similar feeling concering Gary Ross.)
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
The more that the other contenders weaken, the more Depp seems likely. Not many people ran around this year declaring Russel Crowe, Jude Law, or Tom Cruise to be the entertainers of the year. Career-wise, this is a huge step for Depp toward success, and the Academy voters may want to recognize that. I know the role isn't Oscary, but it is quite fanatically well loved. I can't deny that I am a huge fan of this performance, but I don't think that this is blurring my vision at the moment.
Master & Commander is the weakest of my predicted nominees right now (I revised them on paper, and will be updating them online shortly). Peter Weir is well-loved in the industry (he's been nominated many times), and I'm quite certain about his placement. However, I think that it's looking ever more similar to The Truman Show in 1998, we may see a snub of the film and of Crowe, but the inclusion of Bettany and Weir. Of course, I don't think that the runners-up are much of a challenge (I'll get to Lost in Translation), so I don't see it missing the nom right now.
As for Lost in Translation, I think that people are sort of denying an obvious fact: the film is not at ALL Oscary. Sure, the critics love it, but that means nest to nothing in the Best Picture race. The film is slow, thoughtful, does not contain many big emotional moments, and is not "important" in any way. The film is wonderful to watch, but I fear that the Academy will not deem it worthy of a nomination. It doesn't really contain anything that you could consider nominatable in the tech categories. The cinematography is wonderful, but not traditional, so it won't get any attention, and because it is not flashy, and it's not a period piece, everything past screenplay is off-limits. Of course, Actors will like it (it gives its two leads wonderful chances to prove themselves) and they're the largest part of the academy, so it could still get in.
I will be updating my predictions in a few moments. A preview? 21 Grams grows in strength, Master & Commander weakens, and some shake ups in the music categories.
Couldn't agree more on "Lost in Translation" (despite the fact that I haven't seen it). There's a bit of a buzz for it getting nominated for Best Picture, but I remain skeptical, not due to the quality of the film, but due to the tastes of the Academy.
I think it's a shame that such a smart, thoughtful film will be left off. I'm not surprised at all, however.
I think that someone compared this situation to Leaving Las Vegas in 1995. I think that it's an apt and useful comparison.
You both may well be right, but a closer comparison might well be In the Bedroom, a small, little-seen drama with killer performances and much buzz...
Which did get the nods...
I may chicken out later, but for now, I'm getting a few chips on Lost.
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
I am so ready to see Lord of the Rings win best picture. It is an awsome movie. Peter Jackson so deserves the best director, all that work he has done to create tree master pieces is amazing.
Lord of the Rings certainly has a great chance. In fact, the Best Picture award is pretty much its to lose.
Me, I like Lost in Translation better, but LOTR would be the strongest win in years, so I wouldn't cry.
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
Wow! I had a feeling there would be an unexpected director, but I certainly guessed the wrong one.
Drats, now there will be ten times the number of folks who stick City of God in their rental queue. On the plus side, perhaps it will finally open here...
More surprises than I thought. Fun.
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
RE: Best Director
There is ALWAYS a really artistic surprise director, and I should have known that everyone predicting the same 7 people was a bad sign.
Tim Burton wasn't a bad guess at all, but I think the academy proved that they weren't big on Big Fish in general.
Looks like Miramax got a big ol' thumb in the eye this morning, didn't they?
Indeed. Have they lost their power, or have they yet to adapt to the new nomination schedule?
I remember last time we all thought the former, they rocked the following year, so I suspect the latter, but we'll see.
Another nice surprise - Maybe now The Triplets of Belleville will get a wider release. I've heard nothing but great things...
I haven't seen Barbarian Invasions, but as a big fan of The Decline of the American Empire and Jesus of Montreal, I have no problem buying that it is worthy. Another great surprise.
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
Well, having read up on some stuff, Miramax didn't fair too poorly. They own stock in Master and Commander, City of God, Twin Sisters, and Dirty Pretty Things. That gives them 26 noms this year.
Honestly, I think that Cold Mountain was just below par for them. It got a luke-warm-at-best reception, and I think people saw through the hype.
I need to read some stuff on Twin Sisters. I admit I know absolutely squat about it!
How embarasking...
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
Incredible. Ya work so hard on so many lists, and then your guesses at Oscar nominees (without comments, mind you) gets 14,342 reads.
Those wacky web crawlers...
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
Strangely enough, my article which just plagiarized articles written by Roger Ebert about Vincent Gallo (which I NEVER updated) currently has the most reads of all my content, with 1,624.
Apparenly those search spiders like you better than me. Do you have a dead fly collection?
wath do you think about Master & Commander and the Mr Crowe's performance?
I haven't seen this film yet. Sorry!
Completely unrelated, City of God had better open up here soon, because I just read that the DVD has been pushed back from February to June 8th! ARGHHHH!
Shalom, y'all!
L. Bangs
The squishy pop you just hear was my heart breaking. JUNE?! That sucks.
I was wondering what that was...