The Next Fifty Years: Predictions from notable scientists (futurism)

Submitted by diaskeaus on Mon, 01/01/2007 - 09:48
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  1. Steven Weinberg: University of Texas Science Chair
  2. Discovery of supersymmetrical particles
  3. Discovery of a final theory that dictates properties of particles and fields
  4. Knowledge of the nature (density change) of dark matter
  5. Discovering signs of cosmological gravitational waves

  7. Paul Davies: University of Arizona Physicist
  8. Discovering the genesis of life on another planet
  9. Microbial alien life here on earth (extra-terrestrial)
  10. Analysis of the chemical components of microbial life

  12. Sydney Brenner: Salk Institute Distinguished Fellow
  13. Understanding the difference between evolved and designed complex systems
  14. Utilizing the cerebral cortex more than the hypothalamus in practical interactions (nature, technology, and human beings)
  15. Consciousness disappeared as a scientific problem
  16. Obesity will have been solved
  17. Cultural evolution to have failed; biological evolution will take over; people who survive will survive because of a sufficient amount of required brain power

  19. Lewis Wolpert: University College London Emeritus Professor of Biology
  20. The embryo will become fully "computable" and predictable
  21. Understanding the basics of developmental abnormalities and corrective measures

  23. John D. Barrow: University of Cambridge Professor of Mathematical Sciences
  24. Direct detection of dark matter and gravitational waves
  25. Extractions of secrets of the early universe
  26. Discovery of the cosmic neutrino background (possibly a black hole)
  27. Understanding dark energy
  28. Decisive evidence for or against the existence of other dimensions of space
  29. New forces of nature (possibility of time travel)
  30. Nano-sized space probes

  32. Francis Collins: U.S. National Human Genome Research Institute Director
  33. Millions of people living past 100 years
  34. Technologies to sequence genome for $1,000 or less
  35. Healthcare providers able to identify errors in DNA related to disease
  36. Unravel complex interactions among genetic and environmental risk factors
  37. Reprogramming mechanisms that control the balance between cell growth that causes cancer and aging cell death

  39. Gerard 't Hooft: Utrecht University Professor of Theoretical Physics
  40. Deterministic theory uniting quantum mechanics, gravity, and the details of evolution

  42. Max Tegmark: MIT Professor of Physics
  43. Unified theory of the universe
  44. Inflation to have replaced big bang theory
  45. Parallel universes not controversial anymore

  47. Frans de Waal: Emory University Professor of Primate Behavior
  48. Disentangling the feedback loop between brain development and ancient primate tendencies
  49. Social sciences to replace ideology with objective science grounded in a unified behavioral theory
  50. Every psychology and sociology department to have Darwin's portrait on the wall

  52. Edward O. Wilson: Harvard University Emeritus Research Professor
  53. Near-complete mapping of global biodiversity at species level

  55. Marcus du Sautoy: Oxford University Professor of Mathematics
  56. Reveal the secrets behind prime numbers

  58. Steven Pinker: Harvard Professor of Psychology
  59. (10 years) Confirmation of the fundamental hypothesis of evolutionary psychology

  61. Rocky Kolb: University of Chicago Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics
  62. Discovery of Background Gravitational Waves
  63. Acceptance of Inflation (epoch of rapid expansion prior to big bang)

  65. Richard Miller: University of Michigan (Ann Arbor) Professor of Pathology
  66. Elucidation of molecular pathways that render cells from long-lived animals resistant to forms of injury
  67. Development of authentic anti-aging pharmaceuticals
  68. Creation of first class of centenarians as vigorous as sexagenarians

  70. J. Richard Gott: Princeton University Professor of Astrophysics
  71. Establishing a self-supporting colony on Mars

  73. Michael Gazzaniga: University of California Director of the Sage Center for the Study of the Mind
  74. Understanding complex social issues in view that humans are social, relational animals

  76. Robert May: Oxford University and Imperial College London Professor
  77. A better understanding of human institutions such as the impediments to collective, cooperative activity that benefits the large group

  79. Lisa Randall: Harvard University Professor of Physics
  80. Learning more about the underlying nature of matter and how elementary particles acquire their mass
  81. Progress in field theory, cosmology, and quantum gravity to approach applicability

  83. Ellen Heber-Katz: Wistar Institute Professor of Molecular and Cellular Oncogensis
  84. Prescribe drugs that heal severed spinal cords, regenerate hearts, regrow lost limbs, repair central nervous systems, and eventually whole body replacement

  86. Niles Eldredge: American Museum of National History Curator of the Division of Paleontology
  87. Retrofitting the importance:
  88. of isolation in evolution,
  89. the degree to which genetic and morphological change are correlated with speculation,
  90. and the role and importance of extinctions in shaping subsequent evolution

  92. Daniel Pauly: University of British Columbia Director of the Fisheries Centre
  93. A device to detect, amplify, and transmit us to the emotions and fleeting, inarticulate "thoughts" of animals in such a form as to evoke analogous emotions and thoughts in human beings
  94. A global revulsion of eating flesh of all kinds

  96. Peter Norvig: Google Director of Research
  97. People will discuss their needs with a digital intermediary - "searching" will be a part of life

  99. Stephen Wolfram: Wolfram Research CEO
  100. The systematic exploration of the "computational universe" of all possible programs
  101. Computational irreducibility and computational equivalence commonplace
  102. Cellular automata more common and important than algebra

  104. Timothy Gowers: Cambridge University Professor of Mathematics
  105. Finding a solution to the "P=NP" problem (Nobody knows how to show that searching for solutions really is harder than checking that the solutions are correct)

  107. Alexander Vilenkin: Tufts University Professor of Physics
  108. Cosmic strings will be discovered
  109. Directly test superstring theory
  110. Test high-energy particle theories at energies beyond particle accelerators

  112. Martis Rees: Cambridge University Professor of Cosmology and Astrophysics
  113. Answers to the following questions:
  114. Are the laws of physics unique?
  115. Was our big bang the only one?

  117. Igor Aleksander: Imperial College London Emeritus Professor of Neutral Systems Engineering
  118. Recognition that the brain is an informational machine

  120. Bernard Wood: George Washington University Professor of Human Origins
  121. We will know how we differ and how we came to differ from chimpanzees
  122. Developmental biologists will explain how the brain, head, teeth, and limbs of our extinct ancestors came to be

  124. Michael Benton: University of Bristol Professor of Vertebrate Paleontology
  125. We will have a good picture of "the tree of life" (living and extinct species)
  126. Main branching points of the tree routine

  128. Andrew Knoll: Harvard University Professor of Natural History
  129. A detailed blueprint of how genes guide development and evolution
  130. A more complete geochemical accounting of Earth's dynamic history
  131. A large proportion of the fossils in sedimentary rocks will have been discovered

  133. Frank Wilczek: MIT Professor of Physics
  134. Fundamental physics will experience a new golden age catalysed by the LHC
  135. Learn why weak interaction is weak
  136. Unify descriptions of the:
  137. (superficially) different forces of nature
  138. (superficially) different building blocks of matter
  139. Augment our power by bringing in light and electron spin as information carriers within three-dimensional, self-assembling structures
  140. Machines with superhuman intelligence will become common
  141. Learn how to capture a thousandth of the sun's energy and increase the world's wealth

  143. Geoffrey Miller: University of New Mexico evolutionary psychologist
  144. Darwinian critiques of runaway consumer capitalism will undermine the social and sexual appeal of conspicuous consumption
  145. Absurdly wasteful display will become less popular as people comprehend its origins in sexual selection and its unreliability as a signal of individual merit or virtue
  146. Studies of human happiness informed by evolution will reveal the importance of "social capital" (neighborliness, close-knit communities, local family support, integration between kids, adults and the elderly)
  147. Revolutionary changes in urban planning, leading to a New Urbanist revival of mixed-use landscapes
  148. Enlightened citizens will demand to live in village-type spaces rather than alienating suburbs of single-family isolation and unbearable commutes
  149. Evolutionary moral psychology will reveal the social conditions under which human moral virtues flourish
  150. US will realize religion is not a prerequisite for ordinary human decency
  151. Science will kill religion, by offering a more practical, universal and rewarding moral framework for human interaction
  152. Naturalistic moral philosophy will replace theological ethics
  153. ***to be completed RSN
Author Comments: 

Taken from New Scientist, November 18th, 2006

(unfinished, 13 more profiles to note)

JBones01/14/2007

Wow, fascinating read. Thanks for posting.

lukeprog01/14/2007

Yes, thanks for posting this list here. These seem least likely to me, at least for the next 50 years:

Establishing a self-supporting colony on Mars
all Paul Davies' expectations
Consciousness disappeared as a scientific problem
Cultural evolution to have failed; biological evolution will take over
Prescribe drugs that heal severed spinal cords, regenerate hearts, regrow lost limbs, repair central nervous systems, and eventually whole body replacement
A global revulsion of eating flesh of all kinds
Cellular automata more common and important than algebra
Augment our power by bringing in light and electron spin as information carriers within three-dimensional, self-assembling structures
Machines with superhuman intelligence will become common
Science will kill religion, by offering a more practical, universal and rewarding moral framework for human interaction

What do you think?