Awards: My Academy Awards 2005 Predictions (+ BAFTA)

After my weak predictions for the nominations, I hope that I'll have more success with my predix concerning the final winners...

Reasons

Best Picture
The Aviator is really top favourite in this year's Oscar race. It is a 'big', rather classic Hollywood-picture. Apart from that, it has also got the Golden Globes. If 'The Aviator' doesn't get the Oscar in this category, then it must be Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby. Number 3 would be Alexander Payne's excellent comedy 'Sideways', which is much more a critics' film than a top favourite here. Finding Neverland and especially Ray are the big outsiders.
So, that's the situation:
1. The Aviator --> 50%
2. Million Dollar Baby --> 20%
3. Sideways --> 15%
4. Finding Neverland --> 10%
5. Ray --> 5%

Best Direction
Even though he has already got 2 Oscars (+ 1 honorary award), he is again the top favourite to get the Academy Award as Best Director. Therefore Scorsese will once more have to go home without a statuette...
1. Million Dollar Baby (Clint Eastwood) -->70%
2. The Aviator (Martin Scorsese) -->20%
3. Alexander Payne (Sideways) -->5%
4. Taylor Hackford (Ray) -->3%
5. Mike Leigh (Vera Drake) -->2%

Best Leading Actor
Jamie Foxx will obviously get this award for his performance in 'Ray'. The only chance for DiCaprio, Depp and Co. to have real chances is the following situation: Foxx is also nominated as best supporting actor in Michael Mann's Collateral. If he wins here, it is not very probable that he also get the Oscar as best leading role...
1. Ray (Jamie Foxx) --> 85%
2. The Aviator (Leonardo DiCaprio) -->7%
3. Finding Neverland (Johnny Depp) -->4%
4. Hotel Rwanda (Don Cheadle) -->3%
5. Million Dollar Baby (Clint Eastwood) -->1%

Best Leading Actress
Hilary Swank has good chances to get her second Oscar this year. I'm sure she'll beat Annette Bening again. Staunton, Moreno and Winslet are rather outsiders.
1. Million Dollar Baby (Hilary Swank) --> 50%
2. Being Julia (Annette Bening) -->25%
3. Eternal Sunshineof the Spotless Mind (Kate Winslet) -->15%
4. Vera Drake (Imelda Staunton) --> 7%
5. Maria Full of Grace (Catalina Sandino Moreno) --> 3%

Best Supporting Actor
Although he hasn't got the Golden Globe, he has won the SAG Award and he is nominated for the third time at the Oscars: Morgan Freeman is (at least, for me) the man with the best chances in this category. But they are all quite close to each other...
1. Million Dollar Baby (Morgan Freeman) --> 40%
2. Collateral (Jamie Foxx) --> 30%
3. Closer (Clive Owen) --> 15%
4. Sideways (Thomas Haden Church) --> 10%
5. The Aviator (Alan Alda) --> 5%

Best Supporting Actress
Scorseseis epic 'The Aviator' is nominated 11 times, three times for its acting performances. Cate Blanchett has got good chances to win one of these Oscars. Why? Well, she has portrayed Katharine Hepburn (winner of 4 Academy Awards!).
1. The Aviator (Cate Blanchett) --> 40%
2. Closer (Natalie Portman) -> 30%
3. Sideways (Virginia Madsen) --> 15%
4. Kinsey (Laura Linney) --> 10%
5. Hotel Rwanda (Sophie Okonedo) --> 5%

BAFTA
Film: The Aviator CORRECT
British Film: Vera Drake WRONG
First Feature Film: Dear Frankie (Shona Auerbach) WRONG
Direction: The Aviator (Martin Scorsese) WRONG
Original Screenplay: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind CORRECT
Adapted Screenplay: Sideways CORRECT
Film Not In English Language: La Mala Educación/ Bad Education WRONG
Leading Actor: Ray (Jamie Foxx) CORRECT
Leading Actress: Vera Drake (Imelda Staunton) CORRECT
Supporting Actor: Vera Drake (Phil Davis) WRONG
Supporting Actress: The Aviator (Cate Blanchett) CORRECT
Film Music: Ray WRONG
Cinematography: The Aviator WRONG
Editing: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind CORRECT
Production Design: The Aviator CORRECT
Costume Design: House of Flying Daggers WRONG
Sound: The Aviator WRONG
Visual Effects: Spider-Man 2 WRONG
Make-up & Hair: The Aviator CORRECT
Short Animation: City Paradise WRONG
Short Film: Can't Stop Breathing WRONG
Audience Award: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind WRONG

The Aviator --> 7 Baftas --> 4
Ray --> 2 Baftas --> 3
Vera Drake --> 3 Baftas --> CORRECT
Eternal Sunshine...--> 3 Baftas --> 2
Sideways --> 1 Bafta --> CORRECT

BAFTA PREDICTIONS:
09/22 CORRECT