AFI's 10 Top 10 Predictions
Submitted by AJDaGreat on Mon, 05/26/2008 - 11:31
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- The American Film Institute has announced that on June 17, 2008, they will host a special that will release their top 10 picks for the greatest film within each of certain genres. Here are my predictions for the #1 film of each list, followed by what else to look out for on each top 10...
- Animation : Beauty and the Beast (Tough choice. I know that Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs has been on the AFI's top 100 movies lists while this hasn't, but my guess is that Snow White was intended to represent (1) all animated films and (2) a highly innovative choice. My guess is that once all AFI voters are thinking within the scope of animated films, this one might stick out as #1. It's probably a dark horse choice for #1 though.)
- Also look out for... Fantasia, Toy Story, and more Disney classics. The AFI also loves throwing a token recent choice or two at the bottom of the list, so look for that here. My guesses are Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, or Shrek, in that order.
- Fantasy : The Wizard of Oz (It will probably be either this or It's a Wonderful Life.)
- Also look out for... a few great comedies like Harvey, Groundhog Day, and The Princess Bride. Probably Field of Dreams, probably King Kong, and maybe another token recent choice like Fellowship of the Ring. I've got my fingers crossed for Brazil.
- Gangster : The Godfather (I don't know how this could lose, unless they really want to evoke an old-timey gangster feel with this list.)
- Also look out for... The Godfather Part II, and those films evoking an old-timey gangster feel: White Heat, Public Enemy, the original Scarface, and possibly (though less likely) The Killing or Key Largo. Goodfellas and Bonnie and Clyde will surely make it on here as well. On the Waterfront probably will unless it doesn't feel enough like a gangster film. They might put Pulp Fiction and/or Reservoir Dogs on. And I hope Once Upon a Time in America makes it too.
- Science Fiction : 2001: A Space Odyssey (My guess is they'll want a more intelligent film at the top, and save Star Wars and E.T. for lower spots.)
- Also look out for... Alien, Blade Runner, and Close Encounters. Probably Clockwork Orange unless it doesn't seem enough like a conventional scifi. Look for at least one classic 50's scifi like The Day the Earth Stood Still or Invasion of the Body Snatchers. Then, probably a token recent choice like Eternal Sunshine or The Matrix, or it could be a less recent one like Terminator 2 or Back to the Future.
- Western : The Searchers (Could be High Noon, but my guess is that The Searchers will be tough to beat. Partially because Treasure of the Sierra Madre isn't nominated.)
- Also look out for... The Wild Bunch, Butch Cassidy, The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance, Shane, Stagecoach, and Unforgiven. Then, maybe a less conventional Western like Giant, Blazing Saddles, or The Last Picture Show, or maybe a Western that's less acclaimed by the AFI like The Magnificent Seven or My Darling Clementine.
- Sports : Raging Bull (Again, I don't know how this could lose.)
- Also look out for... Rocky, Field of Dreams, Bull Durham, and The Hustler. Probably The Natural, The Pride of the Yankees, and Breaking Away. Possibly the token recent choice of Million Dollar Baby. There could be a comedy on here like Caddyshack, Horse Feathers, or The Freshman, but my guess is all those won't feel enough like sports movies. Beyond that, I'm running out of ideas... Body and Soul? Rudy? Hoosiers? Slap Shot?
- Mystery : Vertigo (This is probably their favorite film of the choices, but I'm not sure how much it feels like a mystery. This could be upset by Chinatown, The Maltese Falcon, Rear Window, or even North by Northwest. Citizen Kane isn't nominated, maybe because they want to spread the love. The Silence of the Lambs isn't nominated, and I really have no idea why.)
- Also look out for... the other films I said, plus In the Heat of the Night. They snubbed The Third Man in last year's Top 100 Films update, but it'll probably be back for this list. They always snub The Conversation, but maybe that'll show up here finally; that's less likely though. I'm hoping for the token recent choice of Memento. In addition, we might see Laura, Rebecca, or The Big Sleep. Probably a mid-90s film will show up too. My money's on L.A. Confidential, but it could be Seven or The Usual Suspects.
- Romantic Comedies : Annie Hall (Maybe the toughest call on here. There are definitely romantic comedies they seem to like better, but my guess is that they'll want the best blend of both romance and comedy. I think these lists are decided both by objective vote and by a committee that discussed their options, so I think other #1 choices will seem weaker by comparison. Some Like It Hot? Too funny; already won the top 100 comedies list. Bringing Up Baby? Too much comedy, not enough romance. Roman Holiday? Too much romance, not enough comedy. Singin' in the Rain? Not actually nominated. City Lights? #1 probably shouldn't be a silent film. The Graduate? Maybe, but might be a bit too weird to be #1. All that will pave the way for Annie Hall. Of course, I could be dead wrong.)
- Also look out for... the other films I mentioned will probably make it on here, except Singin' in the Rain of course. Actually The Graduate might not either. It Happened One Night probably will, though, and The Apartment and The Philadelphia Story are good bets as well. One Preston Sturges film will probably be on here - my guess is The Lady Eve, but it could be The Palm Beach Story. Ernst Lubitsch really should be on here, and the most likely choice would probably be Ninotchka, but somehow I don't see that happening. An 80s film will probably be on here, and inexplicably, Tootsie isn't nominated, so it'll probably go to When Harry Met Sally, though Say Anything is possible. I also have my fingers crossed for Harold and Maude. Beyond that, probably another classic screwball comedy like Adam's Rib or His Girl Friday.
- Courtroom Drama : 12 Angry Men (It's a tough call between this or To Kill a Mockingbird. My feeling is that 12 Angry Men will feel more like a courtroom drama, even if people like TKAM more.)
- Also look out for... hell, maybe Adam's Rib will show up here instead. They constantly snub Paths of Glory, but hopefully that will show up here as well. You'll probably see Anatomy of a Murder, Witness for the Prosecution, Judgment at Nuremberg, and The Verdict. A Few Good Men will probably make its way here. Beyond that? Maybe In Cold Blood, maybe The Insider, maybe Kramer vs. Kramer.
- Epic : Lawrence of Arabia (They seem to ever so slightly prefer Gone With the Wind, but I'm going to guess that this one feels a little more like an epic. I may be completely wrong though. These two will probably be the top two, but the order may be reversed. The Godfather isn't nominated, but The Godfather Part II is. Odd.)
- Also look out for... Apocalypse Now, Ben-Hur, Bridge on the River Kwai, and Schindler's List all seem like safe bets. Probably Gandhi and Spartacus. Intolerance will probably be on here, as they'll want a D.W. Griffith film but won't want to seem like racists. Then, at least one, maybe two fairly recent films; take your pick from Braveheart, Titanic, Gladiator, or Saving Private Ryan. My money's on the first. But I've still got my fingers crossed for Once Upon a Time in America.
How'd I do?
#1 Picks
7 out of 10, not too bad.
Animation
I knew that there would be at most one non-Disney film on here. But damn, clearly the AFI does not love Beauty and the Beast as much as I do.
Fantasy
...nor the Princess Bride. I called ever other film on here though besides Brazil which was really more of a personal hope. Blech to the AFI for putting Lord of the Rings so high. It's a Wonderful Life is easily a better fantasy film. Miracle on 34th Street is, like the token recent films, a trend I should have identified: the token film that's not really acclaimed but is iconic and a good example of the genre. For future, I'll call this the token genre picture.
Gangster
I did very well here. I swear I meant to include Little Caesar with those old-timey gangster pics, and so the only one I didn't see coming was the #10 - the new Scarface.
Science Fiction
Again, did very well here, although I didn't see the Close Encounters snub. Kudos to myself for guessing the top three right away and correctly predicting that even though they normally rank Star Wars above 2001, that 2001 would reign victorious here.
Western
How did I not mention Red River? More importantly, how did the AFI not mention The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance? Is Cat Ballou really a better Western? Reeeeallly?
Sports
I really had no idea (1) what would fill the bottom two slots, (2) that Hoosiers would place so high, or (3) how much the AFI likes Caddyshack (way more than I like it). I shouldn't have guessed The Natural, but I guess I thought it'd be a token genre picture.
Mystery
I did okay here, immediately picking the films that filled the #1, #2, #3, #6, and #7 slots while also guessing #4 and #5 later in my predictions. The lack of In the Heat of the Night surprised me; it may be the purest mystery of the films I guessed. Aside from a half-hearted mention of Usual Suspects, I was pretty surprised by the lowest three films. Blue Velvet especially surprised me. I know many regard it as an American classic, but I didn't know the AFI liked it, nor do I particularly think of it as a mystery as much as I think of it as a Lynchian mindfuck.
Romantic Comedies
I screwed up somewhat here, but in my defense, Sleepless in Seattle? Moonstruck? Are those really better romantic comedies than all the classic films I rattled off? Reeeeallly? I guess Sleepless in Seattle is both a token genre picture and a token recent film, so it gets double affirmative action. Annie Hall ended up at #2, and the competitor with the weakest caveat I mentioned ended up as #1. I don't really know why I didn't think the AFI would name a silent film as #1; I just had a vague feeling. I'm happy with it though, as I think City Lights is probably a better romantic comedy than Annie Hall. The lack of Bringing Up Baby should nullify this list, but the inclusion of Harold and Maude is some salvation.
Courtroom Drama
I did pretty well here besides guessing Paths of Glory and the Insider, along with my flub for #1. 12 Angry Men deserved it over TKAM, and Kramer vs. Kramer was way too high. Both of the latter two movies have stories that are about so much more than the courtroom drama, especially Kramer vs. Kramer which doesn't even get into the courtroom drama until the last 1/4 of the movie or so. Still glad to see the other courtroom dramas I mentioned (most of which I loved) get recognized, especially the underrated Witness for the Prosecution. This list also contained the one film out of all 100 I must admit I have never heard of: A Cry in the Dark.
Epic
Wow, good call on Lawrence of Arabia getting #1 despite the fact that they always rank Gone With the Wind higher, but other than that, weak finish. No Apocalypse Now, no Bridge on the River Kwai, no Gandhi, no D.W. Griffith at all, no Braveheart, and of course no Once Upon a Time in America. I did guess the top 5 correctly but the bottom half caught me off guard. I guess The Ten Commandments is a token genre film so that has as much right to be around as Miracle on 34th Street has to be on the Fantasy list, but what about Reds? Is that really a better epic than Apocalypse Now, Bridge on the River Kwai, and Gandhi? They really should've put River Kwai on here; I mean, Lean is the king of the epics and it's not like they overloaded the list with him. In other news, what's up with the AFI ranking Gone With the Wind in the top 5 whenever they make a list of the greatest movies, and then ranking it 4th in a list of the greatest epics? Not that I'm complaining, I just think it's weird.
Anyway. Good times, guys. Good times.
Congratulations. Very impressive. Good job. But with "all due respect" to the AFI, they appear to be a bunch of chuckleheads.
Off the top of my head:
How does Citizen Kane not make it into the Mystery category?
Back to the Future comes in at #10... better than Planet of the Apes.
Jerry Maguire? Really?
Oh, they prove their chuckleheadedness pretty consistently. I'm just glad that I'm picking up on the trends.
I commented on Citizen Kane above. It wasn't nominated, perhaps because they wanted to spread the love to some other films that they haven't already ranked as the greatest film of all time twice. Or maybe, even though it definitely feels like a mystery, they didn't feel comfortable implying that it's a "genre picture" for some reason. I dunno. I'd call it among the greatest mysteries in cinema, but as for this list, I'm more surprised that Silence of the Lambs wasn't nominated.
I must admit, though, that I do love Back to the Future. Although I haven't seen Planet of the Apes.
I'm with you on Jerry Maguire though.
Please allow me to throw up...
the A.F.I.'s 10 Top 10:
ANIMATION
1 Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (1937)
2 Pinocchio (1940)
3 Bambi (1942)
4 The Lion King (1994)
5 Fantasia (1940)
6 Toy Story (1995)
7 Beauty and the Beast (1991)
8 Shrek (2001)
9 Cinderella (1950)
10 Finding Nemo (2003)
FANTASY
1 The Wizard of Oz (1939)
2 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001)
3 It's a Wonderful Life (1946)
4 King Kong (1933)
5 Miracle on 34th Street (1947)
6 Field of Dreams (1989)
7 Harvey (1950)
8 Groundhog Day (1993)
9 The Thief of Bagdad (1924)
10 Big (1988)
GANGSTER
1 The Godfather (1972)
2 Goodfellas (1990)
3 The Godfather Part II (1974)
4 White Heat (1949)
5 Bonnie and Clyde (1967)
6 Scarface: The Shame of a Nation (1932)
7 Pulp Fiction (1994)
8 The Public Enemy (1931)
9 Little Caesar (1930)
10 Scarface (1983)
SCIENCE FICTION
1 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)
2 Star Wars: Episode IV — A New Hope (1977)
3 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)
4 A Clockwork Orange (1971)
5 The Day The Earth Stood Still (1951)
6 Blade Runner (1982)
7 Alien (1979)
8 Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991)
9 Invasion of the Body Snatchers (1956)
10 Back to the Future (1985)
WESTERN
1 The Searchers (1956)
2 High Noon (1952)
3 Shane (1953)
4 Unforgiven (1992)
5 Red River (1948)
6 The Wild Bunch (1969)
7 Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969)
8 McCabe & Mrs. Miller (1971)
9 Stagecoach (1939)
10 Cat Ballou (1965)
SPORTS
1 Raging Bull (1980)
2 Rocky (1976)
3 The Pride of the Yankees (1942)
4 Hoosiers (1986)
5 Bull Durham (1988)
6 The Hustler (1961)
7 Caddyshack (1980)
8 Breaking Away (1979)
9 National Velvet (1944)
10 Jerry Maguire (1996)
MYSTERY
1 Vertigo (1958)
2 Chinatown (1974)
3 Rear Window (1954)
4 Laura (1944)
5 The Third Man (1949)
6 The Maltese Falcon (1941)
7 North By Northwest (1959)
8 Blue Velvet (1986)
9 Dial M for Murder (1954)
10 The Usual Suspects (1995)
ROMANTIC COMEDY
1 City Lights (1931)
2 Annie Hall (1977)
3 It Happened One Night (1934)
4 Roman Holiday (1953)
5 The Philadelphia Story (1940)
6 When Harry Met Sally ... (1989)
7 Adam's Rib (1949)
8 Moonstruck (1987)
9 Harold and Maude (1971)
10 Sleepless in Seattle (1993)
COURTROOM DRAMA
1 To Kill a Mockingbird (1962)
2 12 Angry Men (1957)
3 Kramer Vs. Kramer (1979)
4 The Verdict (1982)
5 A Few Good Men (1992)
6 Witness for the Prosecution (1957)
7 Anatomy of a Murder (1959)
8 In Cold Blood (1967)
9 A Cry in the Dark (1988)
10 Judgment at Nuremberg (1961)
EPIC
1 Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
2 Ben-Hur (1959)
3 Schindler's List (1993)
4 Gone With the Wind (1939)
5 Spartacus (1960)
6 Titanic (1997)
7 All Quiet on the Western Front (1930)
8 Saving Private Ryan (1998)
9 Reds (1981)
10 The Ten Commandments (1956)
Wow, good work.
I know that the chuckleheads at the A.F.I. do these lists to amuse and spur discussion. I've seen what lists can do. But the more I looked the more chucked up the lists looked. I was going to fire off some "suggestions" to make me feel better... until I came up with nearly two dozen Westerns that could have made the list.
I don't even like Westerns.
So I've fired a barrage. I don't think that every movie in my list should have replaced the movies the A.F.I. selected but, what the chuck! I probably shouldn't get this worked up. They're just choosing their history. Look at all of the movies from the 90s and late 80s that are on my list. Evidently I have a big crush on Denzel; that's weird because I've always thought of myself as John Cusak.
I'm wondering if I should throw up the A.F.I.'s list or... just. throw. up. (Don't tell me you didn't see that one coming a mile off.)
ANIMATION
Chicken Run (2000) (trailer)
Iron Giant (1999) (trailer)
Mononoke-hime (1997) (trailer)
The Nightmare Before Christmas (1993) (trailer)
The Secret of N.I.M.H. (1982) (trailer)
Sin City (2005) (trailer)
South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut (1999) (trailer)
Toy Story 2 (1999) (trailer) (scene) (bloopers)
Who Framed Roger Rabbit (1988) (trailer)
Yellow Submarine (1968) (trailer)
FANTASY
The Adventures of Baron Munchausen (1988) (trailer)
Batman Returns (1992) (trailer)
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007) (trailer) (action movie trailer)
Labyrinth (1986) (trailer) (fanvid) (fanficvid)
Lola rennt (1998) (trailer 1) (trailer 2)
MirrorMask (2005) (trailer)
Monty Python and the Holy Grail (1975) (trailer)
The Princess Bride (1987) (trailer) (international trailer)
The Rocky Horror Picture Show (1975) (trailer)
Wo hu cang long (2000) (trailer) (fantrailer) (night fight) (night flight) (fight)
GANGSTER
Bound (1996) (trailer 1) (trailer 2) (trailer 3)
Donnie Brasco (1996) (trailer)
Get Shorty (1995) (trailer)
High Sierra (1941) (trailer)
Kansas City (1996) (trailer) (jazz) (solitude)
Key Largo (1948) (trailer)
Married to the Mob (1988) (trailer)
New Jack City (1991) (trailer)
On the Waterfront (1954) (trailer)
The Untouchables (1987) (trailer) (fantrailer)
SCIENCE FICTION
Aliens (1986) (trailer)
Brazil (1985) (trailer 1) (trailer 2)
Bride of Frankenstein (1935) (trailer)
Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back (1980) (trailer) (bearded lord trailer)
The Matrix (1999) (trailer)
Planet of the Apes (1968) (trailer)
Serenity (2005) (trailer)
Sleeper (1973) (trailer)
Starship Troopers (1997) (trailer) (psa)
Twelve Monkeys (1995) (trailer) (trailer)
WESTERN
Blazing Saddles (1974) (trailer)
Broken Arrow (1950) (1st reel)
Il buono, il brutto, il cattivo (1966) (trailer 1) (trailer 2)
Dead Man (1995) (trailer)
Little Big Man (1970) (1st reel)
Near Dark (1987) (trailer 1) (trailer 2)
The Ox-Bow Incident (1943) (trailer)
Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid [dir cut] (1988) (trailer)
Shichinin no samurai (1954) (trailer)
Treasure of the Sierra Madre (1948) (trailer)
SPORTS
Bang the Drum Slowly (1973) (review) (pic) (poster)
Bend It Like Beckham (2002) (trailer 1) (trailer 2)
Eight Men Out (1988) (trailer)
Horse Feathers (1932) (trailer)
Kingpin (1996) (trailer)
The Natural (1984) (trailer)
North Dallas Forty (1979) (trailer)
Remember the Titans (2000) (trailer) (Gettysburg) (remember) (hospital)
Rollerball (1975) (trailer)
Slap Shot (1977) (teaser) (trailer 1) (trailer 2)
MYSTERY
After the Thin Man (1936) (trailer) (and before)
The Big Sleep (1946) (trailer) (more)
Basic Instinct (1992) (trailer)
Citizen Kane (1941) (trailer)
Fargo (1996) (trailer)
L.A. Confidential (1997) (trailer)
Memento (2000) (trailer 1) (trailer 1?)
Psycho (1960) (trailer)
Strange Days (1995) (trailer)
The Thirty-Nine Steps (1935) (first reel) (sex scene)
ROMANTIC COMEDY
Bringing Up Baby (1938) (trailer)
A Fish Called Wanda (1988) (trailer)
Grossse Point Blank (1997) (trailer)
His Girl Friday (1940) (trailer)
L.A. Story (1991) (trailer)
The Lady and the Tramp (1955) (trailer 1 ) (trailer 2 ) (trailer 3)
Say Anything (1989) (trailer)
Singin' in the Rain (1952) (trailer)
The Thin Man (1934) (trailer) (and after)
Top Hat (1935) (trailer) (trailer)
COURTROOM DRAMA
Amistad (1997) (trailer 1) (trailer 2)
...And Justice for All (1979) (trailer)
The Caine Mutiny (1954) (testify)
The Hurricane (1999) (trailer)
Inherit the Wind (1960) (trailer 1) (trailer 2)
The Insider (1999) (trailer) (further inside)
Philadelphia (1993) (trailer)
The Pelican Brief (1993) (trailer)
Primal Fear (1996) (trailer)
Runaway Jury (2003) (trailer)
EPIC
300 (2007) (teaser) (trailer 2) (dinner plans)
Amadeus (1984) (restoration)
Apocalypse Now (1979) (redux)
The Birth of a Nation (1915) (trailer)
Dr. Zhivago (1965) (trailer)
Gandhi (1982) (trailer)
Gladiator (2000) (trailer) (coming attraction) (tiger tiger) (Elysium)
Great Expectations (1946) (trailer)
Malcolm X (1992) (trailer)
The Sound of Music (1965) (trailer)
Take that! A.F.I.
Wow, awesome lists! I do think a lot of these were ineligible for the AFI lists either because they were not American films (Princess Mononoke, Yellow Submarine, Run Lola Run, The Good The Bad and the Ugly, etc.) or bizarrely not nominated (Citizen Kane, Singin' in the Rain - again, my guess is that it's just because these films have already gotten top spots on other lists), but I definitely agree with you on a lot of these, of the ones I've seen. Certainly The Princess Bride, Brazil, Slap Shot, Memento, Bringing Up Baby, His Girl Friday, The Insider, and Apocalypse Now should've definitely replaced the AFI's far lamer selections, and it would have been great to see Bound, Get Shorty, Say Anything, and The Ox-Bow Incident on there too.
Oh. I guess that's what the 'A' in A.F.I. stands for.
I'm such a chucklehead.
But while I still rant:
How come why for is Star Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope in the "Science Fiction" category? I know that I put Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back (so much better than the first but then the fourth "Star Wars" movie) in that list but that's mostly because I couldn't think of that many science fiction movies. Who'd a thunk it?
The "Star Wars" series should be in the fantasy category. Or The Wizard of Oz should be considered SF because of the robot Tin Man, the Wizard's balloon and those terrifying genetically engineered flying monkeys.
Hey wait just a movie-pickin' minute! I might not be a chucklehead after all.
I'm looking at the 'Mystery' category with four (4!) movies by Alfred Hitchcock and none of them Psycho. The Academy Awards are now on the chucklehead list. It should be called the "Irving G. 'Our Bad' Thalberg Award."
It occurs to me that Hitchcock was from England. That's not American! Well, I think he became a U.S. citizen and all of those movies were made in the USA (I think.)
Hang on! Star Wars: Episode IV - something something and 2001 were both made in England. But by American directors. This would all be fine except for Lawrence of Arabia. British director, British studio, drunken star... there's nothing American about that.
So what do you mean by "ineligible for the AFI lists... because they were not American films"? By 'American' do they really mean 'English' or 'English-speaking'? I can see a New Zealander on the list... I'll tell you one thing: If I see the A.F.I. on the street I'm gonna chuck them up. Two times!
While I've still got my outrage on: Is every single movie, all one hundred of them, directed by a white man? Those chucking mother-chuckers... Three times!
I guess like Woody Allen, the AFI sticks with what they know.
I've actually asked the AFI before about what they classify as an "American" film after Dr. Strangelove made their top comedies list. They wrote me back and told me it was based on a number of different factors and that some films could claim dual citizenship. Which may, in the end, be pretty arbitrary. I don't know specifically about Lawrence of Arabia.
I do agree with you, though, about Empire Strikes Back being better than the original Star Wars. As for Wizard of Oz and Star Wars trading genres, I think your criticism of the AFI may itself be approaching chuckleheadedness there. With all due respect, of course. :-)